KEY POINTS:
Graham Henry has made a bit of a habit of springing surprises in his squad selections. However, there's one surprise that I think he should pull for today's World Cup squad but which I don't think he will: Marty Holah.
There are signs Henry and his fellow selectors might be re-examining the mix in their loose forwards, with talk that Sione Lauaki might be coming back into calculations if his injured knee will hold up for a World Cup campaign.
The obvious casualty from that, if Lauaki makes the travelling team, would be Troy Flavell as the three wise men may have decided that Reuben Thorne can cover both lock and blindside flanker and maybe Flavell's form hasn't quite got back up to the impact level he displayed at the beginning of the season.
But I reckon there's another loose forward there who can count himself lucky and who is keeping Holah out: Chris Masoe.
I think the selectors will probably stick with Masoe. They have backed him all this way and have made a virtue out of the fact he can cover 6, 7 and 8. Well, I don't agree.
Of course, Masoe can play, and has played, in all three spots. But how good a No 8 is he? I can think of three or four who'd rate ahead of him. At No 7, I believe we are short-changing ourselves by not having a specialist back-up to Richie McCaw.
That's where Holah comes in. Two specialist No 7s can count themselves unlucky, I think. Daniel Braid had a fine season for the Blues and probably did more work in the tackled ball area than previously. But Holah is the undisputed second-best to McCaw in the vital breakdown area of the game - where the All Blacks get a lot of their possession and a lot of their go-forward.
Rewind your video and have a look at the South African test in Christchurch. The Boks were targeting McCaw at the tackled ball area - knocking him off his feet all the time to take him out of the game. All it takes is a busted rib or a concussion or a pinged hamstring, God forbid, and then we have Masoe as the All Blacks' principal ball-grubber. That worries me.
I know the selectors have said Holah may not suit their needs as a ball-carrier and they like forwards who win the "collision area". But I think this is a question of balance and ensuring the All Black platform is as stable as possible.
Okay, Rodney So'oialo does a lot of work at the breakdown as well but we need specialists here. There are other ball-carriers in this All Black outfit. Jerry Collins for one, Keven Mealamu, and I saw Carl Hayman doing more carry-ups with the ball in recent test matches than I have ever seen him do before.
No, for me, it comes back to specialists to do a specialist's job and I think Holah should be there ahead of Masoe.
I also think Greg Somerville will be one of the props at the expense of John Schwalger, after Somerville came through 80m in his pre-season game for Canterbury against North Harbour yesterday, where he played on both sides of the scrum.
Somerville offers experience and leadership and I fancy the selectors might have gone off Schwalger and Neemia Tialata a bit, as neither of them have been given much of a go in this latest test series.
Tialata will still be there and can play both sides - but I think they like Somerville if, like Lauaki, he can recover well enough from his injury.
