KEY POINTS:
I'm having a bit of a chuckle at the stories coming out of England that they will play an expansive game against the All Blacks tomorrow morning. Expansive? More like expensive...
If I was England coach Andy Robinson, I'd be wanting to make sure my guys stayed within cooee of this All Black team at all times, rather than play a game with which they are unfamiliar - and get their heads handed to them by the All Blacks. That's what I can see - a bit of a massacre if England really do play open stuff.
But Robinson is too close to losing his job to go all adventurous, especially when the English have such a poor record at doing so. Even when you look at club rugby in England, it is a rung or two down from what is played here.
You hear a lot about the power of their forward play but it is really more a retirement home for Southern Hemisphere players.
All right, they might play more games and train a lot but the fact of is that the rugby isn't as demanding as it is here. I remember talking to Craig Dowd after he'd gone to Britain to play. He said the rugby was a hell of a lot easier than in New Zealand.
There were more games and scrums but but they were nowhere near as aerobically challenging for him as Super rugby.
Their forwards are not ball carriers. Whereas we and the Aussies have good ball players in the tight five and loosies, they don't. I don't think prop Andy Sheridan has ever run with the ball, has he? Maybe they'll let him run out with the ball at the start of his 50th match.
As for the backs, you might get the odd skinny winger who is quick and elusive but they really don't have the midfield and the creativity to make and find space. Their only real option is to play to their strengths - the forwards - keep it tight, keep putting the pressure on the All Blacks and profit by their mistakes.
The other intriguing aspect of this contest is the justification it promises for the All Black rehabilitation and reconditioning strategy.
Some people are worried the back row - Richie McCaw, Reuben Thorne and Chris Masoe - haven't had a lot of rugby recently and might be undercooked.
And so they might. But the All Blacks have hung their hat on resting players this year and Steve Hansen explained the other day about Thorne's rehab.
He said being dropped from the team had done him good. He'd rested and reconditioned so that he was sharper and fitter. Before that, Reuben's career had been built around playing every minute of every game and his form had dropped.
When Thorne came back, he was a different player, Hansen said, and so he was shipped straight back into the All Blacks. Now he's had a lot of time off, Reuben will again be rested, according to the All Black theory.
Well, we'll see, won't we? For what it's worth, I think Thorne will go well and I will be very surprised if they don't give Keith Robinson a rest and move Thorne to lock, with Rodney So'oialo coming in.
If the All Blacks are going well, I'd also expect the whole front row to be replaced. Graham Henry has said he has stacked the bench with frontrowers because he respects the England front row.
Fair enough. But it still looks like rotation to me. The English are going to be hard pressed to stop the All Blacks if they get enough ball. They will have to look after Dan Carter and Aaron Mauger in close because those two can hurt them.
If the English defend well there, the All Blacks will swing it wide to where Ma'a Nonu, Joe Rokocoko and Rico Gear will be waiting.
Having said all that, don't make the mistake of thinking I am writing off the English. They are tough to beat at home.
But I am saying they will not be expansive - or not what we would call expansive - and that they will grind it out against the All Blacks.
Will that be enough to beat New Zealand? I don't think so but the answer to that question will also be an answer to whether the All Blacks' recon and rehab strategy can cut it.
- HERALD ON SUNDAY
