You'd have to say that this All Black squad for the Tri Nations contains more people lucky to be there than there are people unlucky to miss out.
That's not the best equation for heading into a campaign that will be as challenging as any the All Blacks have faced in modern times. I'd go further - about 90 per cent of the All Blacks in this squad have served up mostly inept performances so far.
I know we are constrained by a lack of choice right now but that doesn't totally explain the performances we have been watching. This squad is mostly conservative and, I'd have to say, it leaves me more than a bit worried.
For years now, the June test window has been used to get players and the team ready for the big event - the Tri Nations. They do not look ready at the moment. Wayne Smith says they'll be heading into camp and will be playing simulated games.
Well, good luck to them. Simulated games are not tests and they are often where the worst injuries are sustained.
Lelia Masaga's probably the only unlucky one although I feel a bit for Liam Messam. Masaga did nothing wrong - in fact, he did a damn sight less wrong than Joe Rokocoko did. Maybe he ran it out of defence a bit much and got isolated and he didn't really light things up the way he did in Super 14.
However, it was his first test. He was selected over Hosea Gear for the Italy match and now he's been dumped out. Gear has apparently been in good form but Masaga could well have scored six or seven tries if he'd been left in the Juniors and who'd be in "good form" then? I think Masaga is unlucky.
Messam played well on the end of year tour last year and in the Super 14 where he was No 6. They put him on the back of the scrum and then spat him out after one test at No 8. Admittedly, he had a bit of a horror match and I couldn't argue with him being dropped after that - and he's also a victim of Rodney So'oialo's return.
George Whitelock played well in the half hour or so he got against Italy and maybe Latimer didn't show up as well then - but it's really tough to select someone on the evidence of patches of play and I'd say Whitelock is similarly a victim of Richie McCaw's return.
I know some will feel that Sione Lauaki was unlucky and that he'd add some go-forward power but I don't agree. He's been tried many times and it's always a lottery which Lauaki turns up.
But if you're talking "lucky to be there", well, hello Gear, Bryn Evans, Jason Eaton, Owen Franks - to me he has done nothing to suggest he should be an All Black yet - Rokocoko, and Neemia Tialata.
The locks situation is the most interesting. Evans has been on the bench throughout but hasn't really been seen to any advantage yet. Eaton has been out of favour but is now back in and it's been suggested the coaching panel see him as a lock/loose forward.
Well, pardon me, but the evidence of the first three tests of the season suggests we need someone with some grunt to partner the man who has been consistently the best All Black over the first three tests of the year - Brad Thorn.
Apart from Thorn, the All Black coaches appear to be looking at a different breed for locks these days - leggy, mobile, ball-carriers. But, on the evidence of the forward displays so far, we need more power, push and crunch at the breakdown as well as lineout work . I felt Jeremy Thrush was the best of the Hurricanes locks this season, ahead of either Eaton or Evans.
There's also a big difference between the Pacific Nations stuff and fronting up against Australia, if that's what Eaton and Gear are asked to do.
In fact, to go back to the beginning, there's really only been three All Blacks - Thorn and to a lesser extent Keven Mealamu and Isaac Ross - who have stood up so far. That's too few. In a test, you need at least six or seven forwards firing on all cylinders; you can't afford to carry more than one or two
So I come back to what I said to Graham Henry & co a few weeks ago, after the loss to France.
It's time to do a coaching job. We all know this isn't the preferred All Black squad - so that means there are some weak points... Even the senior blokes coming back have been out with injury for a while and there is a lot of pressure on them to perform. If they don't, we are in the crapper.
So it will take a good coaching job to get the All Blacks through. Let's see it.
<i>Richard Loe</i>: Coaches need to step up over 'inept' ABs
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