Whoever the next All Blacks coach is, NZ Rugby needs to appoint them in a much different way to the one used to select Ian Foster. Photo / Photosport
Whoever the next All Blacks coach is, NZ Rugby needs to appoint them in a much different way to the one used to select Ian Foster. Photo / Photosport
New Zealand Rugby is in a tricky position on deciding when, how and who to appoint as All Blacks coach after the 2023 World Cup. In the latest edition of Inside the All Blacks Machine, Gregor Paul looks at the most important decision facing the national body in the next12 months.
Timing and process will be everything when it comes to deciding who should coach the All Blacks in 2024.
Getting these right is something New Zealand Rugby has historically struggled with and the question of when, how and for how long to appoint the next coach is one being fiercely debated at the highest levels of the national body.
The importance of choosing the right coaching team has never been greater, as there has never been so much investment riding on the All Blacks continuing to be successful.
Nor has there ever been so much scrutiny on coaching teams — modern rugby having become fixated with their power and influence and the allegiance of fans seemingly linked to how they feel about the people at the helm of the All Blacks.
For NZR, there will be no more important decision to get right in the next 12 months than who they put into the All Blacks coaching role in 2024.
To some degree the whole rugby ecosystem is living with the consequences of the previous process not being right.
The last three years have been dominated by the perception of the previous process to appoint the coach being flawed, and NZR does not want a similar taint hanging over the next World Cup cycle.
Sir Graham Henry was the only member of a five-person selection panel that selected Ian Foster to lead the All Blacks who had ever coached a rugby team. Photo / Photosport
Former chair Brent Impey took charge of things three years ago and despite knowing in December 2018 that incumbent coach Steve Hansen would not seek reappointment, he stuck to the historic timeline of waiting until after the 2019 World Cup to begin the process of seeking a successor.
By delaying, NZR saw prospective candidates sign with rival nations long before the World Cup.
Ian Foster and Scott Robertson were the only two candidates shortlisted, and when Graham Henry was asked to lead the panel to interview them, many felt the process was designed to reflect NZR’s preference for continuity of regime.
Henry, before he stood down as head coach of the All Blacks in 2011, advocated for his assistant, Hansen, to take over and hence when Foster, who had served eight years as an assistant since 2012 was given the job, the narrative formed that the national body had fixed on this idea of succession planning.
But the process inflicted more than perceived damage. Waiting until after the World Cup before taking applications meant that there was only a limited pool of potential assistant coaches for Foster and Robertson to pick from.
Foster’s initial plan was to work with Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown, but they pulled out when Japan offered them increased deals to stay.
John Plumtree and Brad Mooar had to be scrambled on to Foster’s ticket late in the piece and both had their contracts terminated earlier this year for under-performance.
The last three years have seen the All Blacks’ win ratio drop to 70 per cent, and the team accumulate unwanted records such as suffering their first defeat to Argentina and losing three successive home tests.
It has also been a period in which Foster has not been able to win favourable media coverage or public respect, and the cause of all this turbulence can be traced back to the timing and methodology of the appointment process.
No one at NZR wants history to repeat, but there is not unanimous agreement on when and how to conduct the next appointment process.
But the time is coming when NZR’s executive team and board are going to have to set a timeline or they will again see the best Kiwi coaches in the world game picked up by rival countries.
The pressure to sort this, to have a clear and well-communicated plan that details exactly how and when the appointment process will play through, is being driven by external forces and the global demand for New Zealand’s best coaches.
England coach Eddie Jones. Photo / Photosport
England have already announced that their incumbent, Eddie Jones, will be stepping down at the end of 2023, and that they want his successor determined by May next year, and ideally able to be with the team at the World Cup.
The prevailing view in Scotland is that Gregor Townsend won’t be reappointed beyond 2023 and that they will be looking for a new coach in 2024, and the same situation is likely to play out in Wales, where Wayne Pivac has been solid rather than spectacular.
And then there is Australia, where Dave Rennie has asked that his contract, which expires at the end of 2023, be extended before the end of this year.
Few expect him to be granted his wish given he’s produced a 38 per cent win ratio and the Wallabies lost to Italy last week.
Big jobs are soon to come on the market and already Robertson has declared his interest in seeking an offshore opportunity.
“I’ve said it many times that the All Blacks is my preferred choice but if it didn’t work out that way, England’s got so much potential, it’d be a pretty special job,” he said this month.
“There is potential to any international job, I’ll make that clear, because there’s a few coming up [after the 2023 World Cup]. My first choice is to be at home. And then what other potential, if it is England, Scotland or Australia or any other team that’s out there, you’ve got to look at it.”
The Herald is aware that NZR met with Robertson in September to discuss its thinking about the All Blacks job timeline, and there are two broad schools of thought under consideration about what should happen.
The shadow of Scott Robertson has loomed large throughout Ian Foster's coaching tenure. Photo / Photosport
There are some NZR board members who want to conduct the process earlier next year — probably in the second quarter — to ensure that the All Blacks get the best people for the job and not the best available people for the job.
But there are some concerns about what impact an early process may have on the incumbent coaching team if they learn months before the World Cup that, regardless of what happens in France, they will be out of a job.
And, if the process is conducted before the World Cup, Foster would rank as a long-shot to retain his job.
The All Blacks are certainly playing better now than they have been at any point in Foster’s tenure, but NZR is aware it would risk incurring the wrath of the public if it reappointed the incumbent on the results and performances achieved between 2020 and 2022.
The other school of thought is driven by a belief that candidates should be willing to sacrifice prospective jobs and take risks to become the All Blacks coach, and that waiting until after the World Cup to conduct the process, therefore, remains the best strategy.
Waiting favours the incumbent group, as should the All Blacks win the World Cup, Foster’s case to continue would be compelling.
Whatever NZR decides to do, it is expected to at least confirm its intentions in the first quarter of next year.
