Lee Stensness: No room for Nonu on bench

There are some things we know about the make-up of the All Blacks for the end of year tour - there will be 32 players and the All Blacks will be using the first three of the four tests to replicate the quarter, semi and final stages of next year's World Cup.

There are many things we don't know, such as the backs/forwards split and therefore there are endless permutations available to the selectors.

While these selectors have developed a reputation for selecting bolters such as Jason Eaton and Isaia Toeava, they are also loyal to players who they know as people and have produced the goods for them on the field. Therefore it is unlikely there will be too much deviation from the players who comfortably won the Tri Nations. The chances of an out-of-form Aaron Mauger not retaining the second-five position are virtually nil, while the best an in-form Ma'a Nonu could hope for is a bench spot.

With this in mind, a starting backline could be: Piri Weepu, Dan Carter, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Mauger, Conrad Smith, Joe Rokocoko and Mils Muliaina, with a bench of Byron Kelleher, Luke McAlister and Nonu.

The problem with that group is adequately covering fullback should Muliaina be forced off. Although Carter and Mauger have played there at first class level and McAlister could if necessary, it could be too big a risk in tests against this calibre of opposition and intensity of occasion.

This may necessitate having Leon MacDonald on the bench in place of Nonu, which would significantly reduce the impact factor but would provide more solidity and security. The other viable option is to play Muliaina at centre, with MacDonald at fullback, which would facilitate Nonu's inclusion on the bench.

However, the portents for such a line-up are not strong given the All Black selectors have long coveted Smith as the long-term successor to Tana Umaga, while repeatedly indicating that fullback is where Muliaina is at his best.

Winger is another area the selectors have options. Sivivatu and Rokocoko are in top form, while Rico Gear has almost slipped off the radar playing for Tasman. But there is a chance the selectors' memories of Sivivatu's fragile defensive display in the final Tri Nations test in South Africa have not been superseded by images of his scintillating play in the Air New Zealand Cup and so Gear may start.

That decision may be made with the same sort of risk-versus-reward criteria that is used when considering Nonu or McDonald for the bench. With that in mind, I would go for an attacking plan A of Sivivatu to start, with a safer plan B of MacDonald on the bench - leaving no room for an unlucky but in-form Nonu.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY