John Drake: Rocky Horror Show (Unless All Blacks win - and win well)

At last - the first "real deal" test of the season. Tomorrow's clash against the Wallabies in Christchurch is absolutely essential to the All Blacks on three counts.

* To halt the growing confidence of this Wallaby team;

* To reassure the selectors, coaches, players and public about our strength and World Cup prospects after the average performances of the last few weeks;

* To prove our arrogance and smugness about player strength and depth has a bit of reality to it.

Against Ireland and Argentina, we had a security blanket in knowing that it wasn't our best combination on the field. And, while the opposition was keen, it wasn't top-notch.

The selectors talked of trial teams and, frankly, showed a smugness which began to wear a bit thin.

The NZRU publicity machine praised the opposition together with the fringe All Black selections and combinations, but I suspect internally there was serious disappointment with the new guys and, more significantly, the attitude of some of the senior pros.

We have been told of a full and frank meeting after Argentina with deficiencies highlighted, and standards reconfirmed. Whether this chat has any impact on our All Black rock stars will be seen. My feeling is the public, media, players, selectors and coaches have been spooked by recent events, but that we still expect to win.

However, a close win may not be enough to relieve the unease.

Unless this All Black team wins well and with authority in key areas there will continue to be doubts, including those around the nation's attitude and arrogance to matters concerning rugby.

Unfortunately, we are facing a rejuvenated Wallaby team which seems to have had a radical change of spots from the pathetic group of last year.

It's basically the same bunch of players but the Aussie psyche is unlike ours. They'll see this as an opportunity to reassert their mental superiority. Just as we will be unhappy without a comprehensive win, the Aussies, while expecting a victory, will crow at a close loss and point to their improvement and our decline since 2005.

Love them or hate them, the Aussies have never been short of confidence - their glass is always half full while ours is mostly half empty.

Where will this test be won? As always, up front will count most. The new Wallaby coach John Connolly has a reputation as a bit of a streetfighter. His Wallaby pack has more muscle than Eddie Jones ever thought necessary.

Guys like Rocky Elsom, Mark Chisholm and George Smith have been let off the lead and told to forget about technical subtleties and do the simple things well. The Aussie lineout seems to have better options and technique than the All Blacks have shown to date.

I still firmly believe our scrum has, at will, the grunt and technique to make the Wallabies squeeze and squirm. Let's hope this superiority is transferred to the ruck and maul where both teams were found wanting against the Irish. Have Richie McCaw and George Smith ever underperformed so consistently at the ruck as in the last few weeks?

So things might be even up front, which will mean the key players wearing 9, 10, 12 and 13 will make the running. Looking at it man-on-man, it might be close run thing. George Gregan is back to his pugnacious best, but Byron Kelleher reserves his best for George. Depending on the quality of forward play, Kelleher could have the edge.

Daniel Carter is the best in the world - the only problem being that nobody has told this to Stephen Larkham, who has been consistently great for an age now.

The All Blacks should run at Larkham, using forwards and backs, to tie him down and make him tackle and tackle. He is fearless and will not shirk this stuff, but his body is fragile.

By probing this attacking channel, the All Blacks might discover gaps to be exploited in other areas.

Likewise, the Australians will see our second five-eighths Aaron Mauger as a juicy target for their runners; as a potential weak area and to take the sting out of his game. Elsom and Stirling Mortlock, on the cut, would be prime bullets to send Mauger's way. But I think Mauger will be up to the task, and his combination with Carter could be the difference.

At centre, Mortlock's recent form has been a combination of brute force and subtle class. I'm really glad we have Muliaina to confront him but it would have been nice if he had been given a bit more warning.

The All Blacks really need to play well and win to get back on the front foot. Australia thrive on these situations - so it might be a tough night.

I must admit that, like the All Black selectors and coaches, I have been preoccupied with the 2007 World Cup. After the 2005 season, everything looked pretty much on track. However, the failure to maximise scrum dominance, flaky lineout play, and the lack of real international talent in some positions required to win the World Cup (second lock, halfback and centre) has made me put much extra importance on this test.

One thing is for sure - we will learn more in these 80 minutes about how this All Black team is placed than in 240 minutes against Ireland and Argentina.

Finally, the real deal.