KEY POINTS:
The provincial final brings together the two heavyweights of New Zealand rugby. Surprisingly, both have underperformed in recent times in this competition.
Canterbury are the main ingredient in the very successful Crusaders but haven't been nearly as successful in the lower-level provincial championship. Wellington are, well, Wellington: brilliant
on a good day but too inconsistent and too often failing in the finals.
Jamie Joseph has worked hard at making them more consistent and has made sound progress. In the semifinals, both teams did it hard against Hawkes Bay and Southland.
For me, Canterbury have the momentum going into tomorrow's final and maybe the better defence. I also like comments from the skipper Kieran Reid, saying this particular group of players has been together for two to three years and it's been their goal to win this competition.
Sadly for most opposition, such comments from Canterbury captains seem to carry weight.
Wellington have been the best team in the competition but they started to stutter once they entered the home straight. They have a few injuries, but then so do Canterbury. The fitness of the likes of Andrew Ellis, Casey Laulala, Neemia Tialata and Jeremy Thrush could be the difference, because in finals you need the star players to step up. Strangely, the journeymen can always be relied on and it's the likes of Rodney So'oialo, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Richie McCaw who make the difference.
Ah, yes, McCaw. The breakdown area will again be vital. Last week I thought both referees weren't strict enough - particularly against Canterbury. They regularly piled into the rucks off their feet, thus ruining any chance Hawkes Bay had of clearing quick ball.
I hope this week there is some strict early policing of the breakdown otherwise it will become a shambles. I also hope the Wellington players don't loose the plot and become too focused on negating McCaw. If they do, they will come second.
We are told by Graham Henry and Co. that the All Blacks end-of-season tour squad was signed off weeks ago. Most interest will be in the new guys, with prop, lock, loose forward and outside backs offering new blood.
I don't intend to try to second guess the three wise men. These selectors are pretty conservative, so look to form in the Super 14 rather than the current provincial competition. This may count against some of the Wellingtonians. Also look at the training squad put together before the Tri Nations. This brought the likes of Adam Thompson into the All Blacks framework.
So don't be surprised if the likes of Paul Williams gets an opportunity ahead of, say, a Cory Jane. Hika Elliot has been outstanding in recent weeks but has little Super 14 form, so Cory Flynn is more likely to get the call-up.
The one exception may be Hosea Gear but his selection may be more related to the impression and form shown by Rudi Wolf and Anthony Tuituvaki in the last All Blacks squad.
Hopefully the experiment of using So'oialo as a flanker is over, creating a chance for Waldron or Latimer to help Thompson as the backup.
Should we be surprised to see Sione Lauaki selected again? You bet! However, I suspect the selectors still see a future for the wrecking ball - all they have to do is train him to mix the smashing with the tackling and eliminate those annoying unforced errors. They must be patient men.
