Brisbane - It was easy to see why the All Blacks were better both in class and on the scoreboard in the opening Bledisloe Cup test in Christchurch.
It began at the scrum. For several years, we have wondered how the Australians had survived in this area. It has probably been a mix of bush cunning and generous refereeing.
The recently retired Bill Young, a real workhorse in the Wallaby front row, has admitted that in the end he ran out of ways to negate the raw power and technique of various opposition.
Last time out, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Carl Hayman toyed with an inexperienced Wallaby front row, despite having a second row of Jason Eaton and Chris Jack, not known for generating great power at the scrum.
I suspect there will be more of the same at Suncorp Stadium tomorrow night. The Australian scrum is improving with each match, but so are the All Blacks.
The introduction of Rodney Blake at tighthead offers a fresh point of interest. He is a big man but bulk does not necessarily mean an improvement.
Technique is the key element all decent props need and the Wallaby coaching staff must be praying Blake, who weighs in around 130kg, can provide more stability than Guy Shepherdson did at Jade Stadium. If he holds up well, I'm sure that privately the Wallaby management will be delighted.
Scrum units get better with match play so just imagine how much better this All Black pack could get at scrum time if not for rotation.
If the Wallaby pack are under the hammer again, it will put huge pressure on No 8 Scott Fava and George Gregan to clear the ball.
At the lineouts, the Wallabies were strangely out-thought and out-muscled by the All Blacks, who have looked fragile all season except in Christchurch, where they pressed the Wallabies into uncharacteristic errors.
I expect a major turnaround at lineout time, where I'm confident the Wallabies will be sure of winning their own ball and will chase the sometimes flaky All Black lineout.
I understand the Wallabies lineout training sessions have been very physical, with plenty of 'live' stuff against opposition - so don't be surprised if something akin to a dockyard brawl breaks out as both packs go full out to assert their authority.
Whichever team keeps its cool and concentration will be critical to how referee Alain Rolland dishes out the penalties. Joel Jutge punished the South Africans heavily in the penalty department last weekend and Dan Carter made them pay with interest. Australia will have taken note.
In Christchurch, George Smith wasn't sure if he was supposed to be No 6, No 7 or No 8, such was the imbalance of the Australian unit. At times, he packed at the scrum at the back, at other times on either flank.
This time, coach John Connolly has selected a better balanced unit, where Fava is a natural No 8 and Rocky Elsom will have learned more at Christchurch than in the rest of his tests put together.
Expect this loose forward trio to be strong, cohesive competitors.
Unfortunately for them, Richie McCaw has come onto his game, he now seems happy with the captaincy and his players now believe in him when things get tough.
The ghost of Tana Umaga is no longer hovering in their minds.
Jerry Collins was rested last weekend, which he detests, so he may take it out on some unsuspecting Wallabies.
Gregan and Stephen Larkham were starved of quality ball and harassed by the All Black pack, plus Byron Kelleher and Carter.
Larkham, especially, will be angry with what happened and will really appreciate Matt Giteau on his shoulder to help with the kicking and find space off the pass.
As a unit, the Australian backs are more experienced and have guys like Chris Latham and Lote Tuqiri, who can break the best defences with individual brilliance.
Last time they had few opportunities and got out-manoeuvred on defence where the All Blacks were able to move the ball rapidly across the field and find space the Wallabies didn't think was there.
I don't think this will happen tomorrow night.
Mentally, the Wallabies really needed the big win against South Africa. Such is the Australian mentality, most of Christchurch will have been forgotten, or thought of as just a one-off bad game.
They will see this the last realistic chance to beat the All Blacks in 2006.
The All Blacks will be wary. Despite the rotations, the squad will be annoyed with how things went last week in Wellington.
Therefore, for many reasons, I expect an explosive test. Both teams will be better than last time, though the Wallabies perhaps have advanced further. Whether it is enough to beat the best team in the world at the moment, it will definitely be worth tuning in tomorrow night.
* John Drake is a former All Black.
The All Blacks in Brisbane
August 3, 1907: All Blacks 14 Australia 5
August 1, 1914: All Blacks 17 Australia 0
July 20, 1929: Australia 17 All Blacks 9
July 16, 1932: All Blacks 21 Australia 3
August 6, 1938: All Blacks 20 Australia 14
June 14, 1947: All Blacks 13 Australia 5
July 21, 1951: All Blacks 16 Australia 6
June 1, 1957: All Blacks 22 Australia 9
May 26, 1962: All Blacks 20 Australia 6
June 22, 1968: All Blacks 19 Australia 18
June 1, 1974: All Blacks 16 Australia 16
June 28, 1980: All Blacks 12 Australia 9
August 4, 1984: All Blacks 19 Australia 15
July 16, 1988: All Blacks 19 Australia 19
July 19, 1992: Australia 19 All Blacks 17
July 27, 1996: All Blacks 32 Australia 25
<i>John Drake:</i> Battle of the brawl boys
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.