John Drake: A few boarding passes left

Two intriguing semifinals lie ahead this weekend and I can think of one observer who'll be taking particular notice of what happens.

All Blacks coach Graham Henry likes this time of the rugby year. He's always enjoyed knockout football for the extra edge, the intensity it brings. He looks for players who thrive in that environment.

In 10 days' time, he'll name his squad of 32 to tour France, England and Wales. My pick is he's got the party pretty well locked in place.

There might be a couple of spots he and his selection chums Steve Hansen, Wayne Smith and Sir Brian Lochore are still mulling over.

And that, apart from the obvious opportunity to progress to the final, is why this weekend might lead to an All Black surprise or two.

If a player is on the fringe of selection, and his rival's team are out, whose shoes would you rather be in? So long as your team are alive, you can catch the selectors' eyes.

Here's an example. Henry and co might have Canterbury's Casey Laulala pencilled in for the squad. But what if Waikato's young centre, Richard Kahui, continues his impressive season against Otago tomorrow night in Hamilton, assuming he's fit to start? And then, has a strong final next week?

If there are 50-50 calls still in Henry's mind, that's the sort of thing that can swing it as he'll have seen Kahui in three straight games where elimination means your team head for the beach.

Henry will also have his fingers crossed there are no more injuries.

He's already lost Doug Howlett and I think his absence is crucial for Auckland against Wellington tonight.

This could be a terrific contest.

The key in my mind is the set pieces and rucks and mauls. John Afoa at tighthead prop will be vital. He wouldn't be returning from his back injury if he wasn't 100 per cent.

Wellington's scrum has been good and they have a talent for prospering off opponents' lineouts. Ali Williams will be watching from the stands. More bad news for Auckland.

Both sets of backs have the ability to rip teams apart but in Wellington's case it was their forwards who belted Canterbury in their quarter-final last week. If they can bring the same intensity as they did that night, Auckland will struggle.

As for Auckland, all the talk is about their razzle-dazzle style, but to be fair to coach Pat Lam, they base their game on having good set pieces and being very accurate at the breakdown. They can get quick ball and I rate the ferocity they bring to the crunch situations.

I don't believe Auckland have a plan B if things go wrong.

They have no option but to play the style that has got them this far. They can't play tight rugby. If they try they'll lose. It's just not their deal.

I wonder if Otago's final came at Albany last Sunday. Their chances of toppling Waikato rose in my mind on what I saw against North Harbour. Okay, Harbour were poor but you've still got to be doing plenty right to score 56 points as Otago did. They showed plenty of enterprise and their reserves made a positive impact.

First five-eighths Nick Evans is important, and looks to be coming into good form and I rate their captain and openside flanker Josh Blackie. His battle with Marty Holah will be a pivotal aspect of the match.

Otago's problem is they've lost a day this week in travel. Having only one training session at this stage of the competition isn't necessarily catastrophic, but whichever way you slice it, they've lost a day of work compared with Waikato.

Mentally, Waikato weren't right last weekend against Southland. Referee Steve Walsh's bizarre display didn't help Southland's cause and Waikato will have copped it this week from their fans.

I still believe in the psychology of rugby. Waikato will be very disappointed with their effort and it'll motivate them the right way. They will be up for it tomorrow night.

I picked Waikato to win the title from the start. They've got depth in good areas, made great progress and gone about their work well. Hooker Tom Willis will be important for his lineout throwing and scrummaging and I like the look of their young props, who've stood up impressively this season.

My picks? Waikato and, on form and because of the injury situation, I'd favour Wellington. This could be their year - but with the qualification Auckland undoubtedly have the artillery to step up tonight.