KEY POINTS:
It will do little to settle Graham Henry's nerves that the man likely to hold the casting vote to appoint the next All Black coach is a die-hard Cantabrian.
Henry, probably more than anyone else in New Zealand, knows that the appointment of the All Black coach is
driven by emotion, which is why this week it might come down to Mike Eagle having to use his bestowed powers. The former Canterbury Rugby Union chairman is expected to be given the power to decide the fate of Henry and the aspiring Robbie Deans should the NZRU board be split on who to appoint.
That scenario has arisen because chairman Jock Hobbs has had to stand down from the appointment process, as Deans is his brother-in-law, leaving eight voting NZRU board members.
Eagle, who was on the interview panel that recommended the board appoint Henry in 2003, will be deemed by his fellow board members to have the most experience and knowledge of the appointment process and therefore will be the man to hold the casting vote if there is a 4-4 split.
Firm opinions have been reached by several well-placed rugby folk that the numbers are already stacked in favour of the incumbent.
Henry, so the theory goes, was persuaded to reapply on the basis that he has the majority support of the board.
There he was in the days after learning his job was up for grabs, simmering away in the darkest of moods adamant he was walking away. Come November 26 and his application was in the post.
One well-placed source said: "I think a number of people got in his ear and told him not to throw it all away. If you look at what the current coaching team achieved in their four years, it would be crazy to get rid of them."
But Henry knows gauging the mood of the board is a process fraught with inherent danger. Each board member will have his own preference, possibly derived through a geographical bias or dealings with the men standing.
Henry knows this from his previous attempts to win the job. In 1998, he sought the advice of then board member Kevin Roberts.
Was he a chance of ousting the incumbent John Hart, he inquired. Henry felt there was a Canterbury bias on the board and Roberts couldn't allay those fears.
Roberts said he would vote for Henry but that he couldn't be too sure which way the others were leaning, as it had become an emotive rather than objective process.
In most other issues, board members would be cautious with their opinions but when it came to the coaching appointment in 1998, no-one sat on the fence.
Hart was reappointed by one vote ahead of Robbie Deans, with Henry having decided earlier that year to head to Wales.
The All Black coach also knows through his experience as a selector that people have their favourites.
He admitted as much during the World Cup when he named the All Black side for the quarter-final.
So the speculation about Henry being urged on a nod and a wink is just that. He knows that no matter how strong his case, whatever he might have heard about the leanings of board members, judgement hour comes when they have to cast a vote.
That vote is likely to take place soon after all four candidates have been interviewed by the full board on Thursday and Friday.
In 2003, when it was a shootout between Henry and John Mitchell, both men were grilled by a specialist panel that fired 50 questions at them. They were then afforded the chance to present for about an hour to the full board, laying out their vision for All Black rugby.
That specialist panel made a recommendation to the board after both men had presented and then the board voted.
This time there will be no specialist panel - it will be straight in front of the full board. It is thought the candidates will present their case and then be quizzed. The board will then hold a vote to appoint the coach or could potentially call some candidates back for a second interview.
When the time comes to cast their vote, they must determine the strength of their own convictions and attempt to put aside personal prejudice.
With the exception of Bill Thurston, who joined the board only this year, the other seven voting members were complicit in the World Cup failure.
All of them agreed to the reconditioning policy and all were sure Henry was on the right track with his emphasis on player welfare and depth building.
The Henry era delivered the best winning record of any international side in the modern era.
Under Henry, the All Black forwards also shed their reputation as spice boys - Andy Pandy types who were happiest in the pyjama world of Super 14 - and they reconnected with their external stakeholders.
Look at where the All Blacks were in December 2003 and where they are now and no one can refute there has been massive improvement in terms of player depth, individual fitness and skill levels, professional development and collective understanding of their responsibilities.
But while so much has changed, there is one major component which remains the same - the All Blacks are now, just as they were in 2003, reeling from World Cup failure.
It was the board that made winning the 2007 World Cup the No 1 priority for Henry.
They agreed to a mass withdrawal of players from Super 14 that damaged commercial relationships all for the sake of winning the World Cup.
Success didn't come. Henry delivered a brilliant winning record but he didn't deliver a World Cup.
If they think Deans could match the winning ratio, continue to develop the All Blacks in all the fields Henry has and deliver a World Cup, then the Crusaders man must be appointed.
