If Nonu's a no-no, which of fab four will get the nod?

Whatever three wings are named in today's All Black squad, you can be sure they will be greeting the news with heavy bags under their eyes. For those in contention, sleeping will not have been easy.

The selectors, too, will have burned the midnight oil working out how they could cull one from Sitiveni Sivivatu, Joe Rokocoko, Rico Gear and Doug Howlett.

It's an impossibly hard choice and one that needs to be right. The All Blacks want to get the ball away from the tackled ball area and play with width. Their finishing power needs to be top notch and their touchline defence switched on to the Lions' favoured cross-kick move.

Sivivatu must have secured a place with his four-try debut. Rico Gear is the country's form wing and comes with bonus kicking skills. So it probably came down to a straight choice between Rokocoko and Howlett. How do you choose?

Rokocoko has struggled for form but 27 tries in 23 tests says all you need, while Howlett also has a startling strike-rate and showed in Albany that his confidence is returning.

Herald on Sunday columnist and former All Black captain Sean Fitzpatrick felt Rokocoko would be in the 26-man squad before Friday night's game. If he's right, incredibly, Howlett could miss out.

There will be other casualties who may need some heavy consoling and sympathetic debriefs as to why they missed the cut.

After Dan Carter left at half-time, Aaron Mauger failed to convince as either a first five-eighths or as a test goal-kicker. Mauger is a superb second five and certain to make the squad.

But this selection panel will hardly need reminding that they inherited their positions largely because their predecessors were a bit flippant about goal-kicking.

Leon MacDonald is possibly a better option as goal-kicking back-up. But there would be a few hearts fluttering if he had to cover first-five.

There will have been robust debate whether to bring in Nick Evans - maybe even Andrew Mehrtens figured in the conversations.

Certainly Henry acknowledged on Friday night they had not settled on a back-up goal-kicker and first five.

He said: "The goal-kicking wasn't of the highest standard. That is a concern. I'm sure the boys will be doing plenty of practice. But we have to look at the position when Dan Carter may not be available to play.

The preference is for 14 forwards and 12 backs, which probably means no room for Sosene Anesi.

The cost of introducing Evans would be losing both Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu. Faced with a sacrifice of that magnitude, maybe the panel weighed up selecting a 13-13 split, with prop Campbell Johnstone making way to save Smith.

With Greg Somerville capable of playing both sides of the scrum, running with just three props is conceivable.

Selecting is not an easy business, as Henry said himself. "I think it is going to be really difficult. It's good for the selectors to be put under pressure. The players can only play their best and wait for the selectors to make their decisions."

One man who certainly did his best was hooker Derren Witcombe, yet the more experienced Corey Flynn may be preferred. The selectors are still hoping Anton Oliver will recover from his calf injury in time to start the first test.

Witcombe offers a lot at scrum time and is a steady thrower. Flynn is a dynamic ball carrier and aggressive tackler. Again, choosing a back-up for Keven Mealamu would not have been decided quickly.

New boy James Ryan probably did enough to convince the selectors he wouldn't become a quivering mass if he had to lock against the Lions. It probably came down to a straight choice between Ryan and Jono Gibbes, though uncertainty about the fitness of the Maori captain may have counted against him.

Gregor's Pick

* Mils Muliaina, Leon MacDonald, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Joe Rokocoko, Rico Gear, Tana Umaga, Aaron Mauger, Nick Evans, Daniel Carter, Justin Marshall, Byron Kelleher, Mose Tuiali'i, Rodney So'oialo, Richie McCaw, Marty Holah, Sione Lauaki, Jerry Collins, Chris Jack, Ali Williams, James Ryan, Carl Hayman, Campbell Johnstone, Greg Somerville, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Corey Flynn.

* Anton Oliver to be added once fit.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY