Henry on red alert

It could be considered bravery taken to the brink of stupidity that the All Blacks are prepared to introduce an element of experimentation in their selection for the test against Wales this Sunday.

The inside word is that Conrad Smith will start at centre, Chris Masoe at openside and Neemia Tialata at loosehead.

There will be experience all around to bolster the new caps but Wales in Cardiff looms as the toughest challenge of the four.

The Six Nations champions are a genuine threat. Their skill levels are good enough to break any defence and they now have belief, a factor missing when they took on the All Blacks a year ago.

But it is not as if Graham Henry will not be aware of that. The former coach of Wales has, as his All Black assistant, the man who succeeded him at the helm of Wales.

Henry and Steve Hansen are under no illusions about how tough it will be to beat Wales at a ground that will reverberate with the perfect close harmony of Land of My Fathers.

Wales will try and play New Zealand at their own game - they will offload out of contact, play with pace and tackle in numbers.

They have ball-carrying forwards in Michael Owen and Jonathan Thomas, a gifted playmaker in Stephen Jones and some finishing power with Gareth Thomas and Shane Williams.

Armed with so much knowledge of the opposition, Henry is convinced he has not gambled on his team selection. He has picked a team he believes can win.

He wouldn't dishonour the jersey by backing players he didn't believe in. He has assessed the strength of Welsh rugby and believes he can afford to usher in a couple of new caps and still nab the victory.

And he would probably be right. The Welsh are a bit like Australia - totally believable until they have to scrum. They can play at pace but maybe not for 80 minutes.

There would also have to be doubts at how they will cope with the running power of Masoe, Collins, Umaga and Sivivatu.

Tom Shanklin, Wales' preferred choice at second-five, is injured and likely to be replaced by Mark Taylor. Shanklin could have just about coped with Umaga attacking the line, the lighter Taylor will find himself willing the stadium clock to get a hurry on.

Henry has also picked a team that will allow him to be true to his objective of not playing anyone in more than two tests consecutively.

After Wales comes Ireland then England. He needs to carefully juggle his resources.

Ireland are a fading force and will be missing Brian O'Driscoll, who presumably now has badly-strained tear ducts as well as a dicky shoulder. But in Dublin they will raise their game, galvanised by the need for retribution.

England, too, will be a devil to beat on Twickenham's hallowed turf.

So there will be no let up until the All Blacks are embraced by the austere charm of Edinburgh.

Consecutive games in Cardiff, Dublin and London, combined with the desire to give everyone a start, puts Henry's selection for the Welsh game into the brave rather than stupid category.

The days of playing the strongest team in every test are long gone. There's a good chance, though, that by the time the All Blacks return in December, no one will see that as such a bad thing anymore.

Possible All Blacks XV: Mils Muliaina, Rico Gear, Conrad Smith, Tana Umaga, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Dan Carter, Byron Kelleher, Rodney So'oialo, Chris Masoe, Jerry Collins, James Ryan, Chris Jack, Carl Hayman, Anton Oliver, Neemia Tialata.

Possible Wales XV: Gareth Thomas, Kevin Morgan, Nicky Robinson, Mark Taylor, Shane Williams, Stephen Jones, Gareth Cooper, Michael Owen, Martyn Williams, Jonathan Thomas, Brent Cockbain, Robert Sidoli, Duncan Jones, Mefin Davies, Adam Jones.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY