Gregor Paul: Time to reconsider the All Blacks’ place in rugby’s pecking order

All Blacks players celebrate after their win over Wales. Photo / Photosport

OPINION:

By Gregor Paul in Edinburgh

The deeper we go into 2022, the more it seems perspectives need to be reconsidered and opinions about international rugby’s true pecking order re-evaluated.

Earlier this year, the All Blacks were being viewed as a side adrift at sea, and as they not so slowly plunged down the world rankings, there was talk of worst season ever.

It was understandable. They did lose three of their first four tests, having lost their last two of 2021.

It looked bad and not even in the context of the previous decade, which had seen the All Blacks occupy the number one spot for almost the full 10 years, losing just 11 tests out of 119.

Five losses in six tests was bad in any era, in any context and clearly, the All Blacks had problems. They couldn’t find their attacking shape, their set-piece was erratic, their ball carrying lacked punch and strategically they were all over the show.

But since they completed their coaching changes — bringing in Jason Ryan as forwards coach and Joe Schmidt to oversee the attack — the statistics read played six, won five and this enduring narrative about the All Blacks being inconsistent is perhaps overdone and not truly reflective of recent results and performances.

This idea of the All Blacks being a side adrift from the other major contenders is also in need of a re-think, given that Argentina beat England at Twickenham over the weekend.

Argentina players celebrate after beating England at Twickenham. Photo / Getty

Here’s most of New Zealand thinking four defeats in a season is a disaster and yet England, who are yet to play the All Blacks, South Africa and Japan before the end of the year, have already lost five tests in 2022.

Scotland, Ireland and Argentina have all won at Twickenham this year, while Australia and France have also beaten England.

South Africa lost to Ireland over the weekend, meaning that the Boks have also been defeated four times in 2022 — by Wales, New Zealand, Australia and Ireland.

France came within a whisker of losing to Australia in Paris, but conjured a late try to secure their 11th successive victory and now several questions have arisen about who is ready to charge on to the World Cup, who may be in trouble and which teams may be in danger of going backwards between now and the tournament?

Where we are right now is that France sit as the best team in the world. They have the results, the form, the depth in their playing squad and intelligence in their coaching team to believe they can maintain their momentum.

Any hope they may have peaked too early is likely forlorn, but the question with the French is whether they will be able to cope with the intensity of pressure that comes with being the host nation.

They have established themselves as the number one side in the world a year out form the tournament and now a nation expects them to win next year — to finally be crowned champions and as England discovered in 2015, that can be a crushing weight.

But for now, they have to be seen as World Cup favourites.

Damian Penaud of France scores a try against Australia. Photo / Getty

Ireland sit not so far behind them, having lost just two tests this year – to New Zealand and France – and they are playing with too much variation in their game to believe they will do what they always do and blow up coming down the home straight.

Right now, they look like the second best team in the world.

England are hard to assess because coach Eddie Jones has effectively asked his bosses to leave judgement about his team until the World Cup — giving him a lot of leeway and licence to say that defeats to Argentina are all part of the development plan.

Jones is a smart operator and maybe England are pulling off a deep fake here by looking decidedly average before bursting to life next year.

Or maybe they are in real trouble — and the bumbling and fumbling on view at Twickenham is borne of deep confusion and lack of confidence in what they are trying to do.

And South Africa look a steady enough crew but may be about to pay a price for not evolving their game at all since the last World Cup.

Which leaves the All Blacks, who currently sit third in the world rankings, which is a fair reflection based on their results.

But they are the team that looks most likely to accelerate their growth between now and the World Cup, having changed up their coaching team, discovered a few new combinations and found a means to deliver the sort of physical punch many thought they didn’t have.

2022 hasn’t been quite the disaster it was on track to be, and the All Blacks could finish the year as the team the rest of the world will be most fearful of.