With the All Blacks playing in Paris this weekend, it's hard to not let the mind drift forward to 2023 as they will play France at the same venue in the opening game of the next World Cup.
What makes that thought process yet harder to keep at bayis the high probability that the All Blacks will play one of South Africa or Ireland in the last eight of that tournament.
It's intriguing because Ireland and South Africa are the two teams who have beaten the All Blacks in 2021.
France could join that list as well if they can win in Paris this weekend and while there would still be two years in which everything could change, it would still be an unprecedented situation for the All Blacks to finish this year neither favourites to win their pool nor beat their likely quarter-final opponents.
None of this is meant to be alarmist, but to highlight the importance of the next two years in rebuilding and re-arming the All Blacks knowing the dangers that lie ahead.
The 2023 World Cup is likely to present them with a tougher path to the semifinals than they have ever faced and based on what has happened this year, no one in New Zealand would feel overly confident about meeting Ireland or South Africa in a knockout game.
The task for All Blacks head coach Ian Foster seems simple enough – he's got two years to revamp his team and build the all-around skill-sets they will need to head to France in 2023 with a higher degree of confidence about their chances of success.
He's got two years to redress this rising tide of anxiety that the All Blacks are slipping behind: two years in which to leave Ireland and South Africa uncertain about how to exploit any weakness or make them wonder if New Zealand do indeed have any.
Fate has at least been kind enough to present the All Blacks with a three-test series against Ireland in July next year with the usual two tests against the Boks as part of the Rugby Championship.
Ireland have won in Chicago and in Dublin, but never have they tasted victory in New Zealand.
They will come out here next July confident they can make history, having already talked publicly about their determination not to make the same old mistake of peaking mid-cycle only to bomb at the World Cup.
Even if they just won a test but not the series, it would heighten this sense that they are the dominant force in the rivalry and only aggravate concerns that the All Blacks are missing something.
Ireland and New Zealand have locked into this pattern where Ireland win, New Zealand respond.
Ireland then win again and New Zealand respond again and a three-test series presents the opportunity to break out of that cycle and for the All Blacks to produce three consistent performances where they outsmart the Irish.
And that's maybe the key to the whole thing – Ireland feel like they have been one step ahead for a few years now and that's ultimately what needs to change ahead of the World Cup.
New Zealand need to be keeping Ireland guessing: leaving them unsure what's coming next and to head to France without having worked out an effective game plan that works against the All Blacks.
Ireland celebrate a penalty in the final seconds of the test against the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport
Just as the All Blacks need to produce two compelling victories against the Boks next year.
Defeat is unlikely to make them give up with their default rush defence and contestable kicking game, but it will provide the All Blacks with some certainty that they finally know how to counter it.
What was frustrating about the series against the Boks this year is that the All Blacks knew what they would bring and were still unable to effectively counter it.
If nothing else, it would be nice for the All Blacks to go to a World Cup not only certain they know what they will be facing from the Springboks should they meet them, but with a significantly higher level of confidence than they currently have that they can also stand up to it.
How much exposure the All Blacks will have to France after this weekend is not known.
The new sponsorship deal with Altrad comes with a commitment to play a test in Montpellier – which may be pencilled in for next year.
But what they already know about France is that they were brave enough to back youth last year and are reconnecting with a traditional game plan based on speed and skill with the obligatory set-piece crunch.
France are almost certainly going to be a better team in 2023 than they will be this weekend and so even if the All Blacks win and win well, they will still need to redefine the way they play before the World Cup.
