Gregor Paul: Steve Hansen nervous about All Blacks he needs

The days of Ben Smith and Israel Dagg linking up in the back line may be numbered. Photo / Jason Oxenham

There is an old game of strategy called spoof - a favourite of public school types - where you can place zero, one, two or three coins in your hand. The object is for everyone else to do the same and participants guess the total number of coins that have been proffered.

In a curious way, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen now finds himself reluctantly playing a human version of spoof where he can't be sure if he's going to end up with zero, one, two or three key All Blacks in his hand later this year.

He's hoping for three. Ideally, he wants Israel Dagg, Ben Smith and Aaron Cruden to all commit to playing at the 2019 World Cup. All three are off contract next year, all three have offers to leave but none has yet made up their minds.

Hansen is nervous not just because coaches always want good players to be available. Hansen doesn't just want these players, at this stage in time, he feels he will need them.

The All Blacks being the All Blacks, if Dagg, Smith and Cruden go, replacements will emerge and life will go on. That's always the way but that doesn't mean the All Blacks will be a better team for losing any of the three who have offers to leave.

Probably most at risk of moving on is Cruden. His future took a radical turn this year when Beauden Barrett blossomed. Barrett went from cameo king to king and as he's nearly three years Cruden's junior, the throne isn't likely to be vacated any time soon.

Cruden has played the role of dutiful understudy for long enough and while he may love New Zealand and feel massively flattered that the All Blacks want him to stay, the reality of being a test match bench player for another two seasons may not necessarily be enough enticement to keep him here. Against that, he reportedly has an offer of around $1.3m a season to play for Montpellier under former Bay of Plenty coach Vern Cotter.

Speaking on radio Hansen said he would be happy to keep two of the three and it's likely that he's thinking Cruden is the coin that won't be in his hand. But he can't be overly confident that the other two will stay.

Dagg began this season with a desire to force his way back into the All Blacks after being dropped from the World Cup squad in 2015. If he could do that, then it would allow him the option of leaving New Zealand on his terms - with his reputation restored. He wouldn't be the guy who was dropped by the All Blacks and then jumped ship.

If he'd been asked in March where he thought his future lay, he'd have probably said offshore. But now he can't be so sure because he played well enough to create a potential new future for himself in New Zealand. He's a starting player for the All Blacks again and if he can retain his form, that won't change. New men are challenging but they don't offer the all round portfolio of Dagg. He faces a genuinely tough call on what to do. He's probably 50:50 on whether to stay or whether to head to Ireland or France.

The odds on Smith staying are maybe better - but not by much. He came close to leaving in 2013 but instead signed for four years. He wanted to prove himself - shift from being a peripheral All Black to first pick. He's done that and at 30, he'll have to decide if he's driven by the challenge of continuing to prove himself in the test arena or whether he wants to be paid out for already having proven himself.

So it could be zero, it could be one, it could be two and while it is a long shot, it could be three players Hansen is still holding later next year. For now, this will feel like a game of spoof that is way more fun for everyone else than it is him.