Roger Tuivasa-Scheck desperately needs game time in his quest to appear at the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
The All Blacks squad to tour Japan and the UK will be picked in a couple of weeks and there probably won't be much for the selectors to dwell on before they commit to their group.
Head coach Ian Foster said after collecting another Rugby Championship title – albeitin an unusually roundabout way, given the typically predictable processions of All Blacks teams of the past – that he and his fellow selectors Joe Schmidt and Jason Ryan now have a strong idea on who they feel will be in their World Cup squad of 33 players next year.
This shouldn't be any kind of surprise as the squad will be picked in less than a year and, with just nine tests left to play before it is finalised, something would have gone spectacularly wrong if they were still in the dark about who they feel is up to it and who isn't.
This last bloc of games in Japan and Europe won't so much be a voyage of discovery as one of confirmation and the only tough question likely to come up in picking the end-of-year tour group is what to do with some of the fringe performers such as Roger Tuivasa-Scheck, Stephen Perofeta, Hoskins Sotutu and Folau Fakatava, given there is also an All Blacks XV tour going on at the same time.
Foster is also picking the squad for the All Blacks XV tour – which will play games in North America and the UK – and he'll have to decide whether those peripheral types who have been with the national team throughout this season but barely played, will be better off playing significant roles for the junior team rather than holding tackle bags for the senior team.
Tuivasa-Scheck, if he were to be picked by the All Blacks, is unlikely to see much game-time other than maybe enjoying a rare start against Japan.
Given he's played so little rugby, having only switched codes last year, his development would be better progressed through the All Blacks XV where he could possibly play a role in every game.
At the moment he's not a player the All Blacks could take to the World Cup next year.
There's not enough evidence he'd be able to bring enough value and with Anton Lienert-Brown not far from returning to full fitness and Jack Goodhue still hopeful he can play in Super Rugby next year, Tuivasa-Scheck feels like a player the All Blacks just won't be able to squeeze into their mix next year when everyone is fit.
If he's going to change that equation, and present a case to be included, then he needs to be playing for the All Blacks XV in November and prove he can deliver the head-on defensive crunch his role requires.
The same could be said of Perofeta who may also enjoy a start against Japan should he be picked by the All Blacks, but then never be seen again as there would unlikely be a place for him in the match day 23 against any of Wales, Scotland or England.
And, potentially, it would make more sense for Perofeta to tour with the All Blacks XV; and if the All Blacks feel they need additional cover at No 10, they could call up Damian McKenzie.
Richie Mo'unga has said he'll likely play in Japan in 2024 and maybe even 2025, and with Beauden Barrett uncertain to still be in New Zealand beyond next year, the All Blacks XV tour feels like a golden opportunity to ready Perofeta for a more senior test role after the next World Cup.
Fakatava is another who would benefit from playing more and training less and it would surely make more sense for him to play for the All Blacks XV as their first-choice No 9 and for Brad Weber to rejoin the All Blacks, where he would likely see limited-to-no game time but provide the national side with the experienced, ready to drop-in cover they would need should injury strike.
As for Sotutu, he looks like he will be under pressure next year to win a World Cup place as Cullen Grace and Ethan Blackadder should both be recovered from respective shoulder injuries by then.
In his two outings against the Australians, Sotutu struggled to produce the quality of defence test rugby demands and his decision-making reflected his lack of rugby.
If he's going to state a case to stay in the national squad, he's going to need to drop down a level to the All Blacks XV to make it and let the likes of Shannon Frizell, Dalton Papali'i and Akira Ioane battle for game time alongside Sam Cane and Ardie Savea.