Gregor Paul: A week of silliness and over-the-top All Blacks hysteria

All Blacks coaching staff, from left, Gilbert Enoka, Steve Hansen, Ian Foster and Scott McLeod arriving for the team training run at Alexandra Park, Auckland. Photo / Mark Mitchell

COMMENT:

It was Winston Churchill, as the Battle of Britain came to a period of respite in mid 1940, who said that never has so much been owed by so many to so few.

This week in New Zealand, maybe it's true that never has so much been made by so many on the basis of so little.

Hysteria has gripped the build-up to the second Bledisloe Cup test. One defeat has sparked about a million half-baked, sensational theories claiming the All Blacks are on the verge of implosion and that rugby's world order has been flipped on its head.

It has at least been entertaining, mostly for the silliness of what has been proffered as analysis but also because it is genuinely intriguing to imagine how those who have painted a picture of an ageing All Blacks team in a panic-ridden decline down the world rankings react if New Zealand come to life at Eden Park and suddenly everything clicks for them.

Brace for a shock horror moment, but the All Blacks have previously lost test matches.

Even more shocking is that some of them have been to Australia and perhaps the shock of all shocks needs to be delivered which is that the All Blacks aren't actually in possession of any divine right to win the World Cup.

The key to making sense of the last three tests is perspective – as in having some and realising that just as the All Blacks were never storming World Cup favourites throughout 2016 when they delivered a record consecutive number of victories, nor are they now heading to Japan without hope just because they lost in Perth.

Jackson Hemopo of the All Blacks looks on during a test between the New Zealand All Blacks and France. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The picture never changes as much as the headlines suggest and there is only one universal area on which to agree, and that is that the All Blacks have not played well in 2019.

The basics of their game have been poor and without a foundation of dominant collision work, good ball retention and crisp pass and catch, they have failed to live up to their own expectations.

But everything else is open to interpretation and the conclusions reached will be determined by the number of misconceptions which are held.

Clearly, there are those who like a little drama and have decided that the All Blacks machine is broken, possibly beyond repair.

They have seen enough in the last three tests to believe the All Blacks are in the midst of some kind of pre-World Cup crisis because they can't understand their own game-plan, have pulled too many players out of their best positions and have aged about 15 years since the last rounds of Super Rugby.

Those who see the world this way mostly believe the All Blacks are by default better than every other team and make all their assessments on that basis.

It's a crippling way to see the world and a touch arrogant as it fails to fairly assess that England, South Africa, Australia and Ireland are all capable of beating the All Blacks – and three of them have done so in this World Cup cycle.

There's very little between the top teams, and the All Blacks' number one ranking only confirms that they are more capable of delivering consistent quality performances, not that they are necessary capable of producing higher-quality performances than anyone else.

All Blacks wing George North with fullback Beauden Barrett. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The World Cup is not suddenly, potentially tighter than it has ever been. It's always tight and Australia, South Africa, England, Ireland, and Wales for that matter, have all been good teams throughout the World Cup cycle even if their respective form has dipped at times.

There has been some suggestion that the All Blacks are now vulnerable in a way they previously weren't.

Which is true, but not because they are suddenly flailing or regressing while their rivals are advancing, but because it's World Cup year and in their quest to build towards that specific point in time they have taken risks with selection while simultaneously trying to adapt their attacking strategy.

There's no more telling statistic to confirm that pre tournament is the time to target the All Blacks than the fact Australia have won just seven Bledisloe fixtures since 2007 and four of them have come in World Cup years.

Part of that risk-taking has seen the All Blacks omit Owen Franks, Ben Smith and Rieko Ioane from the Eden Park test.

To some, this has been seized as evidence that All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has panicked – dropped the big names on the eve of the tournament because he's lost at sea in terms of who his best team is.

The coach was happy for the media to say that the players in question had been dropped and yet at the same time, he confirmed the selectors would probably have made the changes anyway, regardless of what happened in Perth as they wanted to expose Nepo Laulala, George Bridge and Sevu Reece to genuine test match pressure.

He wants Franks, Smith and Ioane to squirm a bit and be uncomfortable about their non-selection, but Hansen hasn't lost faith in these world-class players or suddenly panicked on the eve of the tournament.

This last week has seen the wrong questions posed and the wrong conclusions reached.

All Blacks coach Steve Hansen. Photo / Dean Purcell

The last three performances have been generally poor but not without specific bright spots and flickering signs of what could happen if the forwards get on the front foot.

The team isn't being hampered by a sense of confusion about how they are trying to play and there was reassurance on that when Beauden Barrett, looking as relaxed as he always does, said on Thursday that he has infinite confidence in the game-plan.

The attack hasn't shone because no attack ever does when the forwards aren't winning the collisions and hence Bledisloe two is now all about the All Blacks pack.

Forget everything else, the only thing that needs to be conclusively answered is whether the pack has the ability to play with the controlled aggression and speed to ensure they deliver the quality of possession that successful execution of the gameplan requires.

As Hansen said, he needs to see Sam Whitelock leading the way with a dynamic, bruising performance. He needs, in his words, a "200 per cent" increase in effort, quality and impact, which will require Joe Moody to do more than just scrummage and Patrick Tuipulotu to be at his damaging best.

Everything the All Blacks are trying to do in re-shaping their attack game and giving themselves an element of unpredictability in Japan is dependent on the tight five providing a flow of possession.

If they get that right at Eden Park then some of the hysteria should lessen, or more likely switch in tone to equally over the top and unfounded claims the All Blacks are back to being untouchable World Cup favourites.