Goal-kicking keeps getting more important

The International Rugby Board's latest yearly statistics which monitor - in an arithmetical way - the health of the international game have come up with some intriguing goal-kicking trends.

After monitoring 46 test matches played in 2004 by the Six Nations and Tri-Nations countries, as well as Argentina, the IRB has revealed that 69 per cent of all conversions and 77 per cent of all penalties are successfully kicked in the international game.

This clearly reveals that, nearly 50 years after the heyday of 10-man rugby, the goal-kicker is still of primary importance in any test team.

Between 7/8 out of 10 kicks successfully landed is not a stat to be sneezed at - particularly when the conversion success rate, for example, was 50 per cent in the 1950s, and 61 per cent, 55 per cent, 54 per cent and 47 per cent for each of the decades from then on - a rolling average of 53 per cent.

Compare that with today's rate - 69 per cent of all test-match conversions in 2004 and 73 per cent in the 2003 Rugby World Cup. The higher percentage for the RWC can be explained by the fact that there are easier games at the beginning of the tournament which would lead to more kickable conversions.

The RWC 2003 also saw 71 per cent of all penalties landed, with the figure rising to 77 per cent across the 10 Tri Nations and Six Nations countries and Argentina in 2004. As these teams represent only the world's best rugby teams, it is clear that the role of the goal-kicker has become even more essential in modern rugby.

If this seems skew-whiff in this era of more tries and more ball-in-play, it is explained by the fact that professional rugby has given rise to the professional goal-kicker.

Rugby matches have always been prone to being decided in the final minutes by a penalty. The difference is that now the kickers are far more likely to kick it.

If you have a team with a kicker like Carlos Spencer (if he will forgive us using him as an example), whose success rate does not match up to the 75 per cent norm these days, your chances of winning are correspondingly endangered. While a Daniel Carter (with a success rate higher than 75 per cent) means your chances are obviously heightened.

However, for all those folks who point out that the All Blacks beat the Lions by scoring more tries, that's right too.

The IRB stats also show that only four of the 46 test matches last year were won by a team scoring fewer tries than their opponents. Score more tries and you'll generally win. No shock there, either.

But what is interesting is that, in 2004, 87 per cent of all tries scored came from three phases of play or less, with only four per cent coming from six phases or more. This was up from the RWC 2003, where 83 per cent of all tries came from three phases or less and, again, only four per cent from six phases or more.

That would seem to give the lie to the popular misconception that maintaining possession and recycling the ball leads to scoring tries.

It does - but 20 times fewer than scoring early on in the possession cycle. It also underlines that, even with stronger defences, lineouts and scrums are important try-scoring opportunities - if not in the first phase then shortly afterwards.

Top coaches have recognised for some time the scoring potential from set pieces. Logic suggests that it would be best for attacking sides to seek a penalty after the first six phases and get the 75 per cent man to bang over the three pointers.

But trying to force an opposition error and penalty at ruck or maul after six phases seems far-fetched, particularly as the nightmare scenario at the tackled ball/ruck/maul area can often present a referee with any number of penalty options.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY