Wynne Gray: Unbolting the old Aussie tank

Listing the All Blacks' defeats at the World Cups since 1987 is an exercise in frustration and their results against the Wallabies in Sydney since tests were shifted to Homebush in 1998 make little better reading.

Two victories in eight tests are slim pickings.

There was the epic 39-35 triumph in 2000 when Jonah Lomu tiptoed inside the sideline chalk to complete a thriller and the monumental 50-21 victory in 2003 when the All Blacks played with remarkable freedom.

Around those wins there has been repeated heartache including the loss, later that same year, in the semifinal of the World Cup.

In all but 2000, the Wallabies have won the tight games in Sydney with deeds such as Matt Burke's late penalty or Toutai Kefu scoring a try. There was also the comprehensive defeat in 1999 before the World Cup when captain Taine Randell complained his side had been outpassioned.

On too many occasions it has seemed like the All Blacks are out-thought, out-manoeuvred or outwitted. The Wallabies' resilience under pressure, their ability to deliver under stress in Sydney, has been a consistent barb for the All Blacks.

Even when the Wallabies have been struggling, have looked less likely on paper at least, when they have been wearing some serious criticism, they have responded.

Once again the Wallabies arrive at the now called Telstra Stadium in Sydney's western suburbs as a side unfancied by supporters and observers. They have lost two on the trot against the Springboks, they have lost the backline power of Mat Rogers, Chris Latham, Wendell Sailor and Stephen Larkham to injury amidst a clamour for coaching and captaincy changes.

It is a familiar scenario to the All Blacks and one coach Graham Henry warned against this week as he recalled similar Australian doom before their World Cup form somersault two years ago.

So how do the All Blacks dismantle the Wallabies? What tactics will they adopt, what will they do to tweak their own game and where can they disrupt the Wallabies?

SETPIECE

Chris Jack, Ali Williams and a backrower will be the lineout targets, and Keven Mealamu must hit them early. Perhaps a few throws up front early to Jack and some drives from the pack to tie in the Wallaby defenders are needed. If the Wallaby forwards, in particular George Smith, can be pulled into defensive mauls then the All Black backline will fancy the room to attack the Wallabies' untested defensive formation.

Tony Woodcock has boosted the All Black frontrow and he and the tight five must put repeated heat on the Australians to sap their resources around the park. Jeremy Paul has been worried by a neck problem; this is the time for Carl Hayman and Mealamu to put the scrummaging squeeze on to test Paul's resistance.

MISTAKE RATE

An alarming statistic from Newlands was that the Springboks won the turnovers 24-11. Some of that was caused by the scavenging of Schalk Burger and Joe van Niekerk but several were the result of All Black errors. They lost the ball in contact, they did not get enough players in support behind the ball carrier or they were careless with their presentation or passing. That must be tidied up or the Wallabies will counter as they can.

MENTAL ATTITUDE

This will be the most crucial element of this test. The All Blacks have all the athletic talent necessary to retain the Bledisloe Cup with a win tomorrow. But they need to arrive at the ground in the right frame of mind. They were off-key in Cape Town last week, they were too skittery, too presumptuous in their play. They were too flighty in the first quarter and scarcely recovered. The Springboks did not deviate from their methods, they knew their tasks and completed them. The Wallabies will bring a similar composure.

The All Blacks have to start in concert, not as individuals. Risks need to be minimised, a conservative but safe start will allow everyone to get involved and build some rhythm into their game plan.

KICKING

Attempts at goal should be a continued strength of Daniel Carter but he will be after better precision from his tactical punting than we saw at Newlands. Gerrard and Mitchell must be tested so the All Blacks arrive with the ball while some of the crossfield bombs of Cape Town should be shelved for moving the ball to take advantage of Mils Muliaina's inclusion at fullback.

DEFENCE

Last year the Wallabies did not concede a try in Sydney, their defence was watertight and the All Blacks were able to only kick six penalties. But with injury forcing a new backline formation, there is a hint the Wallabies could be vulnerable around Morgan Turinui and Mortlock. Turinui can fall off the odd tackle while Mortlock is prone to rush up out of the line. Questions must also be asked of newcomers Drew Mitchell and Mark Gerrard under the high ball. Gerrard is not the safest nor does he have the strongest return kicking game. Expect that area in defence to be targeted.

Just as the Boks hounded Byron Kelleher, the All Blacks have to hassle George Gregan. If he is disturbed the backline flow towards new five-eighths Matt Giteau will suffer while there is always the chance Gregan will complain too often to referee Tony Spreadbury.

STRENGTHS

If the All Blacks aim to hit the Wallabies' forte - their recycled ball, lineout ace Daniel Vickerman and distribution of Gregan - they will take a major step in derailing the locals. The visitors must also use their strong points - backing up, the offloads, the interplay - with discretion. This test will not be won in the opening stages but it could be lost then. Support for the ball-carrying of Mealamu and Jerry Collins will give momentum, add to the pressure and should deliver points.