Lee Stensness: MacDonald selection is forward thinking

As we debate the merits of the respective candidates for the vacant position of first-five in the All Blacks, it is clear that the difference between the two front-runners is negligible. Luke McAlister and Leon MacDonald have similar strengths and weaknesses.

Both are physically strong on attack and defence, their restarts and punting skills are similar and while McAlister shades MacDonald in goalkicking, MacDonald has more experience at the top level.

McAlister played well on debut in the third Lions test, however MacDonald was the original choice for that match until injured. But the key weakness of both candidates is that neither plays consistently at first-five. McAlister may do so in the future but at present he seems to be chopped and changed between 10 and 12, while MacDonald could not hope for many games at first-five in the Crusaders or Canterbury given the presence of Dan Carter.

Both players are credible, if slightly imperfect, options so it may become a case of which selection benefits the squad the most.

Here MacDonald has the advantage. If MacDonald can prove that he can play and perform well at first-five in a pressure test match, as Saturday night in Dunedin will be, then it will be of enormous benefit in terms of the possible permutations within the All Black bench.

When Carter is fit and reinstated at 10 - and either Mils Muliaina or MacDonald is at fullback with the other on the bench - then the All Blacks can carry only two back reserves and five forward reserves. If the bench backs are MacDonald and a halfback, MacDonald covers 10 and 15, Muliaina could move to any of 11, 14 or 13 and bring on MacDonald at fullback. Cover for 12 would be Tana Umaga moving in one from centre with Muliaina to 13 and MacDonald to fullback.

The risk of such a bench is if there are two injuries in the backs and a halfback or loose forward has to play in the backline. But that potential risk is outweighed by having five forwards on the bench.

With four forward reserves, compromises have to be made. If there is a specialist No 7, as currently, then either a lock or a loose forward misses out or a hybrid of the two is included. Having five instead of four allows for the three specialist tight forwards - prop, hooker and lock - plus an impact loose forward and a specialist openside flanker.

This would provide the All Blacks with the added firepower of an impact player while having the insurance of a back-up openside. Currently the All Blacks have Marty Holah on the bench as a specialist No 7 back-up to Richie McCaw. Holah is a fine player but sometimes impact of a different kind is required, as it was against South Africa in Cape Town. When Sione Lauaki was on the bench as impact player, the risk was lack of a specialist openside cover for McCaw. A five-forward, two-back split would solve this dilemma and increase the options available to the coaches during a match.

For this reason, I believe Leon McDonald will be selected to start at first-five against the Springboks.

If it is a success against them and Australia then, in the future, the All Blacks could have the luxury of five forwards on the reserve bench for crucial test matches.

It is in the forwards where those matches are often decided.