John Drake: Watch out for an All Black bolter

With the All Blacks absent for the early rounds, and potentially for most of the competition, it would be easy to dismiss the NPC as losing its appeal.

But there's at least one good reason this last 10-team version of the first division will be fascinating. I won't be surprised if a bolter comes through to win a spot on the All Blacks end-of-year tour to Britain.

I am sure the All Black selectors will be studying what happens during the competition and NPC form will be a key ingredient in their thinking for the Grand Slam tour.

Remember, everything is geared towards the World Cup in two years. Broadening player depth is an important part of the selectors' plans.

I'll expect some players who were involved in the Lions series and the Tri-Nations to be rested for the Britain trip, so that adds a bit of spice to the NPC.

Remember Richie McCaw? He leapfrogged the Super 12 to win All Black selection on the back of a fine NPC debut season in 2001. So it has happened before, and recently.

Every year we compare the early NPC to the finals of the NRL and blush at the difference in standard. We also get the feeling that the New Zealand Rugby Union has depreciated the importance of our national provincial competition.

Both criticisms are unfair. To compare different codes at different ends of their competitions is puerile. As for the Rugby Union, Super 12/14 and Tri-Nations is where it makes the cash, but it must be said a fair amount of this goes back to the NPC.

This year's competition will be very different from previous years with the structure for next season already done and dusted. So there will be no fear of relegation for those near the tail, but maybe some jitters for some of the heavyweights without their All Blacks and the knowledge of seeding for 2006 coming into play.

For the likes of Northland and Southland, the planning for next year can begin now. The coaches and players will be aware that instead of sweating on the odd bonus point, they can confidently play to win against the bigger unions without their All Blacks.

This will allow them to experiment, rest players and build squads of depth. All that will give them a huge advantage over the promoted second division teams, Hawkes Bay, Manawatu, Tasman and Counties Manukau next season.

Looking at the greater Blues franchise, it seems to me that Northland have actually over-achieved. Given their financial resources and the continued loss of quality home-grown players, they have survived at the top.

I expect them to improve this season and cause the odd surprise. The same can't be said of North Harbour and Auckland, with neither being able to maximise their undoubted potential.

North Harbour seem to always have a chip on the shoulder and be looking to blame others for the lack of results and consistency. With the population and business base they really must look internally as to why there isn't much silverware in the cabinet. The last trophy they won was the 1987 second division title. Winning a Ranfurly Shield or first division crown would do wonders for their morale.

Auckland's season will determine the fate of many - players, coaches, management, officials and directors. Such is the resolve to do well this season, the union destroyed and belittled their own club finals competition so the representative team could tour Australia.

They have lost, and will continue to lose, key players yet every year they produce some new stars. What the supporters will want is consistency and results befitting an outfit with a huge player base and cash reserves.

Down the motorway, the Mooloo men appear quietly confident. Again, cash seems to be around for recruiting and, boy, have these guys done well in this area.

In coach Warren Gatland, Waikato have a lot of experience on young shoulders. The forwards look sound and the backs frightening. Lack of All Blacks early on will not affect them too much and they are my pick as a team to watch.

Across the Kaimais, the Bay of Plenty Steamers may miss the experience of Glen Jackson and Rua Tipoki, although they are building depth and have a sound culture and environment which easily attracts players.

The teams further south will all be competitive. It will be interesting to see a Canterbury team without the influence of the likes of Andrew Mehrtens and Justin Marshall.

In the current second division large focus will be on the four who will join the premier division next year. I suspect they will struggle, with other teams keen to knock over the future top-flight minnows.

I have no problem with the NZRFU giving these provinces the opportunity, but I suspect a lot of promises about finances and support will now need to be backed up with results. If these unions are relying on a salary cap to survive then they should look out. I exclude Hawkes Bay from this, as their recent results show they can meet the standard on and off the field.

The third division is probably the most popular sector of the NPC - certainly per head of population I suspect these teams get the most support. Again, hats off to the NZRFU for supporting this area of the game.

So, as always it will be a slow start to the NPC but come late September and into October it will be all the talk. And remember, watch for those young guns putting their hands up for the Grand Slam.