The build-up for tonight's test against the Wallabies is history repeating.
How many times have we looked at the Wallaby lineup and thought how many of them would get in our team?
How many times have we thought it was only a matter of how many points we would win by?
In recent times, too many pre-match expectations have been crushed by a more motivated and smarter Wallaby team and management.
Let's get things across the ditch in perspective I recently read an article in an Australian newspaper about the best openside loose forward in the world - George Smith! It was noted after about 15 paragraphs that Richie McCaw was approaching Smith, but had a little way to go.
In another paper, I read about the All Blacks' reputation for choking and that the Bledisloe Cup was there for the taking, and this was just after New Zealand had sorted out the Lions three-zip.
This during a period when the Wallabies were struggling against the Springboks on the field and having players sent home after problems off the pitch.
Yet they still believe our mighty All Blacks are vulnerable. Deep down, the Aussies probably think the All Blacks are better man for man, but this is only a passing thought and best not worth worrying about.
The reality is that Australia have fewer quality players to choose from compared with New Zealand. And if you want an argument here, look at the recruitment of league players and even New Zealand provincial rejects.
I sometimes wonder if by having less choice they get the maximum out of what they do have by reselecting a core group of players, promoting youth and relying on a very, very structured game plan and sound leadership in key positions. These points cannot be under-estimated.
For an Eden Park test in the late 1980s, Bob Dwyer introduced a chubby hooker from Sydney club reserve grade (Phil Kearns), a novice prop (Tony Daly) and a couple of young centres with maybe a handful of representative games between them (Tim Horan and Jason Little).
The All Black selectors would never be so bold, partly because they don't have to and partly because if it didn't come off the selectors would be gone before lunchtime.
Yet the Australians have the self-belief to succeed when maybe we would lack the courage to go for it.
I would argue that they over-achieve at rugby given the internal competition from the AFL and NRL.
Don't look at this as a put-down or criticism, for it is the very reason why yet again I worry about tonight.
The Wallabies have been hurt by defeat and criticism of management, players, tactics and attitude.
Eddie Jones is one of the best coaches around. He may not have a great away-win record but at home he goes okay and he will have this Wallaby team totally focused.
Jones has picked a tallish lineout and will see this as an area to attack. The scrum, as always, looks shaky; yet a combination of clever acting and sympathetic refereeing always seems to even this area up.
If the Wallabies are to get up then George Gregan will have to play a blinder. Without Stephen Larkham his ability to dictate the pace, structure and refereeing of the match will be vital.
If anyone can do this, it's their George. Ditto for the likes of Stirling Mortlock and Lote Tuqiri. If these guys are on their game, then the young guys will be fine.
The All Blacks have rightly retained the same pack which has been consistent all year. Maybe they were a bit loose against South Africa, and I would like to see more drive at the lineout, more support of McCaw at the breakdown and greater numbers at the rolling maul.
It is important that we set the platform, even play conservatively for the first 10 or so minutes. This will get our momentum going and also turn the Australian defence inwards when they are probably preparing for our attacks to be out wide. The Piri Weepu-Dan Carter-Aaron Mauger combination is crucial. Carter had a stinker last week but is too good to repeat that. Weepu will give Gregan respect but also want to announce his own arrival.
If the forwards go well he could create havoc and may not be on Jones' defence radar screen.
Out the back we are world class, no problems here and if Jones thinks these three are vulnerable under the high ball then he might not like the return volleys.
So, again we go into the test with confidence and what we think is the better team. But nobody in the Wallaby camp has been told, so expect another thriller.
* John Drake is a former All Black test player.
<EM>John Drake:</EM> Wallabies ready to squeeze more out of less
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