John Drake: Time for some real action

The waiting is over and the real match of this Lions tour is less than 48 hours away.

The lead-up matches have been disappointing for the Lions.

Whether it has been the large number of players, lack of preparation, referees, night matches, hard-to-handle balls, poor lights, ground conditions - in fact anything you want to blame - the standards have been below the level expected.

The Southland game was a shocker, with a standard of skill and passion well below the average NPC game.

And so on to the first test. The biggest talking point is Jonny Wilkinson at No 12.

It had been mooted, but the expectation was that Sir Clive Woodward would stick with him at No 10.

So why the change and what effect will it have?

I have no doubt about Wilkinson's class, mental toughness and guts. He has shown too many times for his own body's liking that he will not shirk the hard stuff on defence.

Whether his suspect right shoulder will take the battering may be another matter. As with the All Blacks playing Aaron Mauger, Wilkinson at second five-eighths will give the Lions a great kicking alternative outside Stephen Jones and both teams now have a right and left foot kicking option.

On attack, I suspect centre Brian O'Driscoll will be used on the cut and to set up second phase for the forwards, which is a bit of a waste for such a gifted player.

Wilkinson is a stepper and has a turn of pace but he will not be used as a battering ram.

On defence, the All Blacks will ask questions of both Wilkinson and O'Driscoll on the cut and the outside, as this has been one of the few areas exposed so far on tour, particularly by Rua Tipoki and company for New Zealand Maori.

Steppers like Mauger and Dan Carter may find some gaps, particularly from broken play if the All Blacks can get quick ball.

It is a gamble by Woodward and one based on his knowledge of the individuals involved.

The stakes are high and Sir Clive will really feel the heat if it is only half successful. Actually, with so many midfield options available, it seems a bit of an indictment of his opinion of the other players.

Of course, we New Zealanders have never played people out of position in crucial games. Not half. Think Christian Cullen at centre in the 1999 World Cup and Leon MacDonald, again at centre, in 2003.

Neither experiment worked and then, like now, you must wonder how months of preparation can be changed at the last - or was Woodward always going to play this way?

If so, why not give it more of a trial than 18 minutes against Wellington?

Up front, I think the All Blacks will be happy that the Lions have matched Shane Byrne with Keven Mealamu at hooker.

They are well matched in skill, ability and most importantly size and weight. Woodward must have been tempted to play Steve Thompson for his bulk and ability at scrum time, but I guess he could not risk missing targets at lineout time.

This is another pointer of how Woodward wants to play the test.

In picking Ben Kay at lock, he has gone for a leaper/worker with the abrasiveness of Danny Grewcock, who has shown good form on tour, on the bench.

This suggests the Lions are aware of the importance of discipline and not giving away penalties, something which will surely be tested at the ruck/maul area where the All Blacks will think they have the edge.

If the Lions can get at least parity and manipulate the pace of the game and speed of clearance at the breakdown, then they will be a long way to succeeding on the scoreboard.

If they can disrupt the All Blacks' plan for quick ball and control the pace of the match, then good on them. This is what this test will be all about: maximising your teams' strengths and covering over the weaknesses.

The French referee, Joel Jutge, has been around the block a few times and hopefully will let things like the scrum engagement be sorted by the players and not the whistle.

Likewise at lineout, where we are now seeing the gap between the teams closing to how it was in the 1980s.

This allows for obstruction, intimidation and the ability to contest the ball - all great stuff at test level.

Expect to see more driving from both teams with the lower body positions and organisation at the front of the drive being crucial.

Out the back, I fear the likely weather will dictate the style played.

Both teams have gone for reliability under the high ball, so expect plenty of kicking both for touch and for territory where the chasers will be vital.

The Lions will not want a pretty test. They want to strangle the All Blacks mentally and then physically, based on the deeds of England over the past five years.

Against this is an All Black team with more maturity and leadership than seen recently.

The big issue will be who has the hunger and the ability to stamp a game plan on the match.

Christchurch is a great place for an All Blacks victory, but can be the worst place when we lose. Whoever wins will have a huge advantage mentally for the remaining tests.

Christchurch classics

Second test, July 5, 1930
New Zealand 13 Gt Britain 10

Second test, June 10, 1950
New Zealand 8 British Isles 0

Third test, August 29, 1959
New Zealand 22 Lions 8

Third test, August 27, 1966
New Zealand 19 Lions 6

Second test, July 10, 1971
New Zealand 22 Lions 12

Second test, July 9, 1977
Lions 13 New Zealand 9

First test, June 4, 1983
New Zealand 16 Lions 12

First test, June 12, 1993
New Zealand 20 Lions 18

* John Drake is a former All Black test player.