John Drake: Is George gonna get his beans?

It would be easy to assume that the All Blacks will thrash Australia at Eden Park tomorrow night and recapture the Tri-Nations trophy.

I can't quite buy into this prediction, despite all the evidence saying it will happen.

Let's look at the Aussies. They have a long list of injuries, a lack of depth in replacements, internal feuding and a captain and coach fighting off the press and public. So surely they are ready for the taking.

Well, this Australian team only just lost to South Africa two weeks ago, and in fact if the referee had not forgotten his white cane and seen the Percy Montgomery knock-on immediately before the winning Springbok try, they would have won.

This despite all the injuries and dragging a guy away from the meat-pie queue to be a last-minute reserve.

So I believe the Aussies are still competitive. Their defence is well-organised and difficult to breach.

Against South Africa, they got more than 65 per cent of the possession, so they are competitive at lineout and the breakdown.

The scrum remains a shambles and only survives through cheating and forgiving referees.

The attack has become too predictable and most teams can plan round the knowledge that George Gregan will not run and test the opposition defence. They no longer have a runner of Toutai Kefu's ability - or even a half-fit Owen Finegan for that matter - and the repetitive recycling of ball is now too slow and predictable.

This leads to a kicking plan that has neither distance nor puts pressure on the opposition.

Against this, I think the injury-forced changes will make their attack more difficult to predict and probably harder to read and control.

The new guys are not programmed into the tired Eddie Jones structured attack.

This spontaneity could be a revelation and dangerous for the All Blacks as they decide where to place defenders.

Also, this team have nothing to lose, so expect them to try something different without worrying too much about the consequences.

Gregan is playing for his career and is likely to try a bit more than we have seen in the last few seasons.

If he doesn't, he may as well start training as a fulltime barista in one of his popular Sydney cafes.

The rest will die for the cause. The old hands have the fear of execution and the young guys, well they are just pleased to be there and may not appreciate the fact that they are supposed to lie down and let New Zealand run riot.

As for the All Blacks, I suspect they are quite pleased with themselves at the moment, particularly after all the praise following the Dunedin test last weekend.

There is probably not the intensity at training that was there last week - hey, it's only an out-of-sorts Aussie team. Shouldn't be a problem.

Unfortunately, I believe that there isn't much between South Africa, New Zealand and Australia at the moment.

To win, a team needs to be right mentally and have the required killer instinct. I really wonder if the All Blacks have this at the moment.

Graham Henry mentioned early in the week that maybe the team were not totally focused but they would be ready on the day. The coaches and management will try to put things right, but it is only the players who can get themselves up to the intensity required.

There is talk within and outside the team that they are building something special and are heading towards greatness. Well, a bad game tomorrow will wreck this talk, so everyone should be wary of talking things up rather than concentrating on the immediate task. Great teams get there with results, not through talk and backslapping!

Everything points to an All Black victory, but I wonder if it will be as easy as some think. The Wallabies have the attitude and incentives to make things difficult. The All Blacks will need the intensity of last week, but may have their minds on other matters.

This is a dangerous cocktail and will make for an intriguing battle.

Just when we thought the Tri-Nations had become ho-hum and repetitive, we have seen the best series for many years. I suspect this match will be close and just as dramatic as last week in Dunedin.

Beware the wounded Aussie, and never give them a break as they will make you pay.

* John Drake is a former All Black test prop.