John Drake: Don't expect a cricket score in second test

With all the preparation, organisation and planning it seems hard to believe that between the All Blacks and the Lions we have seen 16 changes - either positional or personal for tomorrow's second test.

In the good old days the All Blacks never changed a winning side and traditionalists will be shaking their heads.

Modern tests are played by the whole 22, so apart from Doug Howlett, who has been replaced by Ma'a Nonu, all may be involved again apart from the luckless Carl Hayman.

At scrum time the All Blacks won't lose anything with Greg Somerville.

The lineouts will be interesting as Hayman with his height can lift higher. So the lineouts may be more even.

Certainly Graham Henry and his fellow selectors have shown confidence in making the changes and there is no doubt the new guys will be out to prove a point.

Whether the team can reach the same passion, accuracy and aggression will determine if the changes have worked.

Maybe the changes have been made to try to revitalise the group.

I have no doubt that last week the All Blacks were far better mentally prepared than the Lions. In tests, this can be the difference in performance and victory.

This week the All Blacks have had the distraction of the Brian O'Driscoll incident.

They have tried to pass it off, have publicly said they have moved on and have stated it has not affected the test buildup.

Yet as late as Wednesday Tana Umaga faced the press - with a posse of his team-mates - to finally make their comments on the matter and hopefully put it to rest.

Frankly this should have been handled the day after the match.

Ignoring it gave Clive Woodward and Co something to talk about - and let's face it after the first test Clive needed something rather than rugby to talk about.

The All Blacks' view was not helped by members of the New Zealand media blindly backing the All Blacks' position.

I think the All Blacks have been affected by this issue.

My impression of Umaga is of a fine man with intelligence and understanding of others. He will not be happy with the events of the week and must put it behind him and concentrate on the task ahead.

Many are saying that given a fine night and based on the last outing, the All Blacks will run up a cricket score.

They will need to play better and the Lions will need to continue looking like a bunch of 7-year-olds playing their first season of rugby for this to happen.

For me at least, one of these predictions will not come true. The All Blacks could improve but surely so will the Lions.

They have made wholesale changes from a team that possibly Woodward had picked before the tour began.

Strangely, for me it actually looks stronger and better balanced than the first test team. It is selected on form and has some elements of flair which will surely be needed.

Of the changes, I have always liked a big hooker for scrums and rucks so Steve Thompson gets my approval. I know all about his frailties at lineout but let's face facts: things can only improve in this area.

At lock, Donncha O'Callaghan has been the form middle lineout guy of the tour. No argument there.

There are three new loose forwards, although Ryan Jones did play most of the first test.

Simon Easterby should have been in Spain on holiday and despite 46 players ahead of him, is asked to fill the big boots of the injured Lawrence Dallaglio.

Lewis Moody prefers blindside but finds himself at open against Richie McCaw. Good luck.

In the backs, Woodward has cancelled the each-way bet of Stephen Jones and Jonny Wilkinson, put away his personality clash with Gavin Henson and in Shane Williams and Josh Lewsey picked in-form players who may challenge the All Black defences, but will need support themselves in the one-on-one tackle.

So, based on these changes the Lions should be better. They will still lack combination and timing but frankly with the way tours are structured this will be harder and harder for Lions teams to achieve.

Can they turn around the hiding of last week and win the test? Commonsense says probably not.

They will need the All Blacks to under-achieve - or more precisely they need to play so well as to put the All Blacks off their game and rattle them into errors.

To do this it again will come back to the set-pieces. The Lions will need to not only win their own ball but ensure quality balls for Dwayne Peel and Wilkinson to use, not the slops dished out last week.

Despite suggestions the series is all but won, this test is intriguing.

Can the All Blacks maintain the mental hardness and concentration levels achieved last week?

Do this Lions team have a roar or are they all puff and PR?

How will the Australian referee, Andrew Cole, react in what is certainly his biggest test to remain cool under pressure?

Which skipper/team will manipulate him their way?

For me there is still plenty of interest. I get the feeling the Lions won't go down without a fight.

* John Drake is a former All Black test player.