David Leggat: Man in middle under scrutiny

Remember Clive Norling? He was a big Welsh referee with a moustache. Wore short shorts. He was a personality, was able to have a laugh and was a pretty decent referee.

But don't say that to any South Africans who saw him add about seven minutes' injury time at Eden Park in the flour bomb test of 1981. That left room for Allan Hewson to kick the winning penalty in that final, deciding test of the series.

Then there was Derek Bevan. Another Welshman. Rather pedantic. Used lots of dramatic arm gestures. Could get a bit prickly.

It's nice to be able to say the best referees are those you don't notice - in any sport. You get the odd exception. In soccer, Italian Pierluigi Collina, the ref with the gleaming bald dome, is undoubtedly among the best known figures in the international game - and among the most competent referees.

So we arrive at tonight's opening Lions test and again a referee is likely to be under as much scrutiny as any of the players.

If French whistler Joel Jutge has been listening to the rival camps this week, he'll be feeling pretty good about himself. It's been all compliments. I bet that at about 9.30 tonight, though, one of the two coaches, Graham Henry or Sir Clive Woodward, will privately - and possibly publicly - say differently.

Here's a hope: that tonight the post-match analysis won't be dwelling on Monsieur Jutge's work. Fat chance.

As for the outcome, depending on who you talk to, it seems a three-way split: the All Blacks by a distance; or with a smallish margin; or the Lions, narrowly. Even the Lions' most strident fans aren't talking about the tourists winning by a large margin.

In fact, there has been precious little evidence in their six games on tour that the Lions can win.

So much of what they have done has been laboured. They could put up a legitimate excuse that they needed time to get their combinations to gel. That can only last so long.

The management opted not to give their test side a run in the lead-up to tonight, believing it more important to get units operating together. So the front row, the halfback pairing, the locks and wings/fullback groups have had time in either the Maori or Wellington matches.

Is it enough? No, but we know the Lions have a high-class core - the likes of Josh Lewsey, Gareth Thomas, Brian O'Driscoll, Jonny Wilkinson, Stephen Jones, Dwayne Peel and Paul O'Connell.

However, it is a squad lacking real depth. That means if it goes badly wrong for the Lions tonight, they'll need to find a Plan B for Wellington next weekend. That won't be easy.

As for the All Blacks, we know they can rattle up a cricket score in a training run against Fiji. Those talking confidently of a resounding win are doing so on the basis of the usual All Black expectations combined with the view that the Lions are going to be as hopeless as they have often appeared so far.

The occasion demands a rattling good contest. A one-sided romp will be a flop.

You keep thinking that despite what we've seen so far from the Lions they can't be that bad.

It's a big stage tonight, and that's where the big names stand tall. Don't bet on a flop.