Chris Hewett: The visitors have barely fired a live round

Now here's a funny thing. Graham Henry, who knows a fair bit about rugby in the British Isles, having done his "Messiah" bit with Wales and his "Lucifer" bit with the 2001 Lions, reckons Sir Clive Woodward's team will play a balanced game today.

This could be taken to mean that he expects the tourists to scrummage on both sides of the front row, on the basis that they have precious few ambitions beyond the set-piece.

But apparently Henry is saying more than this. He genuinely believes, if he can be believed himself, that the Lions intend to put some width on the ball.

What on earth could have given him that idea?

Not the events of the last fortnight, that's for sure.

Leaving aside Brian O'Driscoll's world-class finish late in the game, the Lions did next to nothing against the Maori in Hamilton.

They did even less in the wind and rain of Wellington, despite the presence of O'Driscoll, Dwayne Peel, Jonny Wilkinson, Gareth Thomas, Jason Robinson, Josh Lewsey and latterly Stephen Jones in the back division.

They were a little better in Dunedin, but a whole lot worse in Invercargill.

If we're being honest, the visitors have barely fired a live round, as opposed to a fusillade of blanks, since the first quarter of an hour against Bay of Plenty.

Lions teams have been known to hold something back for the tests.

But everything? Please.

It beggars belief that they will suddenly trip the light fantastic against the All Blacks, having spent most of the tour tripping over their own bootlaces.

Ah, you say: what about the first test four years ago, when the Lions torched the Wallabies in Brisbane?

Okay, so what about it? Those tourists had played some sensational rugby in the run-up to that game, not least against Queensland in the same city. On this trip, sensation has been rarer than radium.

Which is not to say that the Blacks have their visitors nailed down in the coffin before the start.

If the heavens open over Canterbury, as the local experts deem likely, Tana Umaga's prediction of a "bit of a grind and no spectacle" could well turn out to be a good call.

The Lions will play a strong set-piece game, put boot to ball and attempt to dominate territorially.

If the weather forces Umaga and his colleagues into playing a similar hand, Sir Clive Woodward will sing the Hallelujah Chorus at the top of his voice before cracking open a few celebratory bottles of Pegasus Bay.

Woodward has never given a tinker's cuss about how he wins, just so long as he does.

Who can blame him? Not Henry, for one.

The All Blacks coach was his usual sharp-witted, fast-talking self yesterday; he swore he was as relaxed as he had ever been and scoffed at suggestions that he and his side were under any more pressure than usual.

They ARE under pressure, though.

Mountains of it. The Lions visit these parts once every 12 years, and a single semi-opposed amble against Fiji in a match that did nothing but harm to the good name of international rugby is not quite at the optimum in terms of preparation for such an epoch-making contest.

And so we come down to it.

The All Blacks start as favourites, but they are at least one game away from feeling really good about themselves. The Lions, dismissed as no-hopers in some quarters, are just beginning to fancy it, provided they do not have to run around too much.

Who will win? Let's be sensible and take the coward's way out.

Half a dozen points either way sounds about right.

* Chris Hewett is a rugby writer for the Independent in London