Andrew Slack: Will Big Mouth strike again?

Andrew Slack

There is only one certainty regarding tomorrow night's Bledisloe Cup match in Sydney and it concerns the post-match analysis. While the losing coach may publicly say he offers no excuses, privately he'll believe there were some.

And just as certain is the fact that most of them will involve refereeing decisions.

It's the way of the sporting world in general, but even more so in the game of rugby with its rather complex and numerous laws.

So for all the intense preparation that the players and coaching staff will have undergone, victory or defeat may all come down to referee Tony Spreadbury and one little debatable interpretation of the not so black and white law book.

Spreadbury is an experienced international performer but human foibles being what they are, who's to say that he might not be a touch susceptible to the odd bit of "advice" from those he is supposed to be adjudicating?

It's quite obvious that Wallaby skipper George Gregan believes a good number of the men with the whistle are not beyond being influenced, and throughout his career, both before and after captaincy came his way, he's worked hard at the art.

That he's won games for the Brumbies in the Super 12 through his verbal cajoling is beyond argument, and his varied use of the subtle or the blunt to enhance Australia's standing with the referee may have even nabbed us the odd test match along the way.

The tactic, though, could have reached its use-by-date, with his reputation perhaps now more likely to work against him than for him.

Knowing that Gregan is not one keen to die wondering when decision time is nigh, referees will see it as a badge of honour to stand up to one of the most strong-minded and decorated players of all time.

What might work against a young whistle-blower in his first representative game shouldn't have the same effect on a test-hardened veteran and Gregan may be best advised to concentrate on his own game rather than spend the time worrying about Spreadbury's.

Admittedly that may be a bit like asking a camel not to grow humps, but if the Wallabies are to avoid their third successive defeat, a five-star effort from their No 9 will be essential, and while he has been solid in the tests so far this year, three and a half stars is probably the kindest rating he's received.

No Larkham and no Latham in the backline diminishes the Wallaby experience big time, and some of the energy he'd normally use chatting to the ref would be better directed towards encouraging and abetting the likes of Drew Mitchell and Mark Gerrard.

The All Blacks don't appear to possess a high-class referee-influencer and after having a player already sent to the sin-bin for back chat in a test this season, they may well be a little gun shy.

Their most effective approach will be to concentrate on what they do best and let Spreadbury feel that he has their respect.

I've always believed that's the best way to get the 50-50 calls.

Each team will be hoping it won't be an 80th minute refereeing call that condemns them to defeat.

However, a line through their form so far this year and the loss of experienced first-choice players for both Eddie Jones and Graham Henry suggest there's unlikely to be a runaway winner.

Australia will feel hardest done by with the season-ending injury that struck Stephen Larkham, and the loss of the in-form Wendell Sailor and Chris Latham means Wallaby selectors have had to take a punt. Mitchell will be a fine player but is he a test-standard international full-back right now? The jury is out.

Both packs have a familiar look about them so anybody who says categorically he knows which eight is going to dominate is telling fibs.

Maybe it will come down to the respective halfbacks to hold the trump card.

Gregan has done it all 111 times before. Piri Weepu, not so many.

You would have to imagine that Weepu will focus solely on his own game and not worry about anybody else. From an Australian point of view, that might be just what we need George to do.

* Andrew Slack is a former Wallaby test player.