David Leggat: Aussies have most to lose in Suncorp decider

Robbie Deans. Photo / Getty Images

Let's examine three possible scenarios at Suncorp Stadium tonight.

The All Blacks sneak home against the Wallabies; call it a seven-point victory, or thereabouts.

Or, they dish out the mother and father of a flogging.

Or Australia win (insert own margin here).

Which of those would you rate the least likely occurrence? A personal choice would be option two.

Robbie Deans' face is usually hard to read, but it was a shade pinched at Eden Park three weeks ago as he watched his side come second, by a reasonable distance.

Should option two occur, he's got a tower of problems.

He's appointed a new captain - or perhaps that should read, removed the armband from his first choice in World Cup year five minutes before the show begins - and had to slap down his Justin Beiber lookalike, suggest he buy a new alarm clock and dump him for tonight's Tri-Nations decider.

If option one transpires, the prevailing view will be that the All Blacks ambitions remain on track, that they've left Australia going into the tournament without any traction; and even if they don't perform at their optimum, everything is set fair for the start of the jamboree in a couple of weeks.

(And here the grumblers over selection issues should consider what just about every other cup-bound country wouldn't give for a choice between Mils Muliaina or Israel Dagg; Conrad Smith or Richard Kahui, etc, etc).

But what about the third possibility?

In a chat with a friend before the Eden Park test it was suggested to him that seeing what Australia had to offer, perhaps some quality play and a decent contest, had some merit. He demurred. Australia, he argued, had to be crushed by as much as possible. His argument was a variation on the one about keeping suckers on the canvas.

This is the All Blacks' last test before they return to their back yard, and of a possible seven games, five will be at the fortress in Mt Eden.

Their last defeat at Eden Park was in 1994, the French triumph on the back of Jean-Luc Sadourny's staggering Try from the End of the World.

Since then, 23 tests have been won there, most by a comfortable margin. So whatever happens tonight, wouldn't you fancy your chances of winning the World Cup given that circumstantial backdrop?

That means tonight must carry more weight for Australia.

Win and not only will it mean the All Blacks have lost their last two tests - and let's not mess about here, against their two likely semifinal and final opponents in October - going into the tournament.

It will also give the Wallabies a solid jolt of optimism, the more so if Rocky Elsom shows losing the captaincy has added a fresh layer of effectiveness to his rugby, and James Horwill has a whale of a game first up as skipper - and all without James O'Connor.

Win and even at Eden Park, where they haven't managed that since Daniel Carter was 4, they'll fancy they're in the ball game.

And certainly up off the canvas.