The All Black selectors went through a soft World Cup selection practice run this week, naming 41 players for their grandiose-sounding foundation days.
Akira Ioane was the big winner, as the only uncapped inclusion, but making the big step up to the actual squad is a far different story in the World Cup year.
For my money George Bridge is now the most likely bolter, the fringe player of 2018 who could have a major role in Japan. While Bridge's inclusion wasn't a shock, it did confirm him as the wing on the rise.
Waisake Naholo should be a world beater with his effortless attacking thrust and turnover technique. But he isn't. His career keeps stalling.
And he didn't have a good 2015 tournament, after enthralling the sports world in miraculously beating injury to get there.
Some things just aren't meant to be. He's looked uncertain this year and is injured again.
The momentum is with speedy George Bridge, particularly if the All Blacks can create a few half gaps for him.
The All Blacks may need a makeshift wing against Canada or Namibia.
Midfielders: Ryan Crotty, Sonny Bill Williams, Jack Goodhue, Anton Lienert-Brown
Would love to get Ngani Laumape in there, but Anton Lienert-Brown's impressive showings off the test bench and greater versatility get him the nod.
Lienert-Brown must be more in tune with the patterns than Laumape, and that is vital in the midfield.
Laumape is a test No12 only and so is SBW, and there ain't room for two dedicated second five-eighths. Despite a lack of consistent game time, SBW can still do things beyond mere footy mortals.
Combative Jackson Hemopo looks at home in test rugby, a potential loosie who adds quality locking cover, so he is hard to leave out. But his blindside experience is very limited and this is a worry, particularly on defensive instincts.
If the great Jerome Kaino and Kieran Read could be earmarked as part time lock candidates in 2015, then Vaea Fifita can accept that dual role this time even though he doesn't like playing lock.
But this is the point at which I screamed "Who wants to be a selector?". The lock/loose forward forward combo would be much easier if each squad had 32 players.
Liam Squire's injury situation is a big worry. Runaway train No8 Akira Ioane lacks versatility, and his temperament and work rate are still suspect with not enough time to sort that out.
This combo gives lots of No8 cover via Savea and Squire, two opensides in Savea and Cane, and three blindsides, plus Fifita's locking potential.
It goes without saying that if Cane's comeback from a broken neck falls short, then Matt Todd goes to Japan.
Props: Owen Franks, Nepo Laulala, Joe Moody, Karl Tu'inukuafe, Ofa Tuungafasi
Pick themselves.
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Dane Coles, Nathan Harris
Harris v Liam Coltman is a bit of a toss up.
The losers...Waisake Naholo, Ngani Laumape, Luke Whitelock, Akira Ioane, Matt Todd, Jackson Hemopo, Patrick Tuipulotu, Tyrel Lomax, Angus Ta'avao, Liam Coltman.