It is only guesswork at this stage, a guarded assessment.
But All Black doctor Graham Paterson thinks Daniel Carter can recover from his broken leg to play on the end-of-year tour.
There is always a risk of complication, he says, but Carter should be back running in about six weeks. Once the swelling subsides on his left leg, conditioning coaches will arrange a mix of cross-training to maintain his fitness.
Both Paterson and Carter spoke yesterday for the first time since the five-eighths broke his fibula when he collided with Clyde Rathbone during the retention of the Bledisloe Cup.
Carter also suffered significant muscle damage in the accident and will be in a moon boot until the swelling subsides.
An x-ray taken on Carter's return to Christchurch revealed the uncomplicated fracture. Paterson said staff would be delighted with a full recovery in six weeks and disappointed if he was not in full training after 12 weeks.
It is just a shade under 12 weeks until the All Blacks play Wales in the first test of the Grand Slam tour.
"I felt it straight away. It was intense pain but I just thought it was my calf," Carter recalled of the injury.
The pain continued through the night for the 23-year-old before he flew home with his leg elevated in business class. It was the first fracture he had suffered in his rugby career.
"Obviously it's disappointing," he said. "I've had a bit of a chance to reflect on what happened. The main priority now is to get the leg right."
The phlegmatic Carter said his immediate diet would be a succession of DVDs and time on the couch before he resumed walking.
Injuries to other five-eighths such as Jonny Wilkinson, Stephen Larkham and Matt Giteau showed the physical nature of rugby but Carter did not accept the position was more hazardous than others.
He said he never thought about self-preservation.
"Nah, I just go full throttle."
Meanwhile the All Black selectors will wrestle with the best way to cover Carter's absence for the Tri-Nations test against the Springboks next week in Dunedin and against the Wallabies at Eden Park the following week.
Leading contenders Luke McAlister and Leon MacDonald will play at first five-eighths in this weekend's second round of the NPC after requests from the national selectors.
Once the round is complete the selectors will decide whether they need to draft any extra five-eighths - such as Tasesa Lavea, Stephen Donald or Nick Evans - or make any other alterations to their squad.
There is no comeback in sight for injured hooker Anton Oliver, who tore his calf muscle during the Super 12 series.
"He is in good spirits and making steady progress," said Paterson. "He's happy and we're happy but it is all taking longer than we want."
It was still too early to tell but Paterson felt Oliver would be able to return to some NPC action with Otago.
"It has been such an unusual injury I don't think anyone would want [Anton especially] to predict one or two weeks in advance of where he is and he is certainly not intending to play in the next one or two weeks."
Carter sets Grand Slam tour as target
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