Beware the tag of favourites

Mat Rogers' selection at first-five has a hint of boom or bust about it. Picture / Brett Phibbs

Often in sport, presumption can be confused with opinion, like the widespread belief that the All Blacks will collect the Tri-Nations title tonight against the Wallabies.

The All Blacks will try not to be too cocky approaching the Eden Park test, though many of the 45,000 crowd will expect them to beat the visitors.

It has been a week of contrasts, with the All Blacks doing their best to hose down the favourites tag while public optimism has escalated after the Dunedin win against the Springboks.

Ask people for a winner or make a decision as the TAB has done, and the popular verdict is for an All Black victory. Nothing presumptuous, just a judgment.

The facts have the Wallabies struggling with injuries, lacking a bench with any great impact, and battling a four-game losing streak compared with the All Blacks' season of one defeat.

The Wallabies look like they need more than the 7 per cent boost George Gregan believes his caffeine tablets provide if they are to arrest their mid-season slump.

It was much the same two short years ago when the sides met in the semifinal of the World Cup. The Wallabies were spluttering while the All Blacks had just come off a decent quarter-final win against the Springboks.

Coach Graham Henry and captain Tana Umaga were spectators at the gory semifinal, a match where any notion of a snug New Zealand victory was destroyed. It is a match the pair have revisited as a method of sharpening tonight's team, concentrating their entire attention for one last test before they retire until the late stages of the NPC.

While the All Blacks are favoured by an Eden Park record of just four defeats in 16 tests against the Wallabies, there is still a huge uncertainty about the outcome.

That is why 45,000 will turn up at Eden Park, why millions will tune into the televised broadcasts to see if the third-ranked side in the world can upset the All Blacks and deliver the Tri-Nations title to South Africa.

There was a continuing blight for the All Blacks yesterday with first five-eighths Leon MacDonald unable to convince the staff that he had recovered fully from his groin injury.

He will have a further fitness test today, with Luke McAlister on alert to deputise.

Halfback Piri Weepu has been cleared to play, but Auckland's goalkicking fullback Brent Ward is on standby in case the reserve bench needs tweaking.

The team alterations have delivered more of an element of the unknown about this test, especially with the Wallabies choosing the unorthodox Mat Rogers at first five-eighths. That selection has a hint of boom or bust about it, but has the All Blacks twitchy.

Of all the teams they played, Umaga said, the Wallabies used a style which was the hardest to defend against. They had a number of players with the X-factor and individual flair.

Wallaby lock Nathan Sharpe said: "There is lots of enthusiasm, it is pouring out of the guys."

The Wallaby scrum will be the initial target for the All Blacks to attack where they will aim for a set-piece advantage as long as referee Chris White is vigilant.

Lineouts may be more even and the Wallabies may suffer through the injury departure of Daniel Vickerman, who was so impressive when the sides met in Sydney.

Injury has meant a rejig of the loose forwards and the return of the tag team Phil Waugh and George Smith.

Smith has gone to the boot of the scrum, but that should mean his arrival with Waugh at the breakdown, where the All Blacks will have to be accurate with their support and clean-out.

The All Black pack has been building, the cohesion is coming and new blindsider Sione Lauaki will need to increase his workload to emulate the suspended Jerry Collins.

When they lost in Newlands and retained the Bledisloe Cup in Sydney, the All Blacks conceded 13-point starts. It was a pattern they rectified last week, one they might feel they can repeat if the composed MacDonald can start this test.

Wallaby skipper George Gregan, playing his 114th test tonight to equal the record set for one country by England prop Jason Leonard, said his side's priority had to be attention to detail.

"You just come back to things which you know have let you down when it's come to maybe closing out a game," he said. "The reality of the situation of the last month is we've dropped a few test matches by small margins and we have been in positions to win them."

* Around 300 tickets are on sale this morning for the test. They can be bought from Ticketmaster on 0800-111999 or www.ticketmaster.co.nz.