Battle of the backline generals

Daniel Carter holds the key to an All Black victory in tonight's Bledisloe test. Warren Little / Getty Images

Leaks have been on the Bledisloe Cup agenda all week and there was no let-up yesterday with apprehension seeping from the All Black and Wallaby squads.

There is an edge to this test which was lacking against Ireland and Argentina, a distinct shift in pitch even if the test might not attract a capacity crowd in Christchurch.

Apprehension manifests itself in many ways but the clearest signs are the restless actions of coaches and players, distracted discussions and preoccupation about tonight's start to the Tri-Nations series.

For the past month the All Blacks and Wallabies have had sparring practice for this heavyweight contest, warming up with three unbeaten tests against inferior opposition.

Neither side has played really well.

The All Blacks repeatedly shuffled their selections before culling their squad while the Wallabies tried to keep some continuity against underpowered and dispirited sides from England and Ireland.

Those strategies collide tonight. The entrees were last month, the Bledisloe Cup is the main course.

And there is an increased anxiety about the menu. Will the All Black servings be better than the Wallabies.

The All Blacks' advantages should be their scrum and loose forward division, but their lineout will be under pressure and the midfield defence will be tested by Stirling Mortlock, Chris Latham and Lote Tuqiri.

The Wallabies want to go to lineouts but may lack the kicking expertise from Stephen Larkham or Mat Rogers to develop enough pressure deep in All Black territory.

In picking four jumpers the Wallabies have given up some agility with lock Mark Chisholm picked on the blindside to back up George Smith.

They have gained some bulk, though, and will need all that muscle to get some scrum stability for a rookie frontrow. If the scrum struggles and continuity is fractured, it will be a tourniquet on a very talented backline.

"There are signs of progress," All Black coach Graham Henry noted of the Wallaby set piece, "but we will have to see if it is potent in all areas."

What-ifs for the All Blacks will centre on their preparation. They have chosen an experienced XV but one which has only trained together this season because of the merry-go-round selection policy.

Unlike the Wallabies, they have ignored the chance of a dress-rehearsal together. They have been working on a broader, long-range approach looking at the World Cup next year but will be twitchy about the immediate obstacle.

A fall tonight will make it an extra tough Tri-Nations, especially with the All Blacks campaign ending with two tests in South Africa.

"This is just part of the strategy, the longterm vision of what we are trying to achieve and we knew that would be under pressure in this test match and that was the way we decided to do it," said Henry.

"So you can't do both things - you can't have a strategy and not implement it. We are under a bit more pressure because we haven't had a lot of time together."

When Henry said earlier that the All Blacks could not expect to win all the time, it seemed like he was getting his excuses in early.

For all the conjecture about the "new-look" Wallabies, the impact of 'Knuckles' Connolly, the weather in Christchurch or the All Blacks roulette wheel selections, the influence of the backline generals will go a long way towards deciding the outcome.

Daniel Carter and Larkham are the best five-eighths in the world. Carter is on the rise while Larkham shows no signs of dwindling prowess.

Carter may have an edge because of his better tactical kicking while Larkham's passing is the key to his backs' potency. The quality of ball they get tonight will influence their choices.

For the first time in a significant international, Carter will be without the expertise of Tana Umaga to reinforce his decisions; he has to command the role as Larkham does. The comparison will be both fascinating and ultimately, probably decisive.

What the experts say

Warren Gatland

Former All Black and current Waikato NPC coach.

Prediction: All Blacks

Gatland believes the fact that the All Blacks are playing at home is an important factor. "They are also under pressure to defend the Tri-Nations and Bledisloe Cup, so I am sure that will play an important role."

Gatland believes it will be a closer battle than past years and credits this to the Wallabies' coaches, who have picked a much larger pack than usual.

Ian Jones

Former All Black

Prediction: All Blacks

Jones believes the All Blacks will win because they will dominate up front, despite the changes John Connolly has made to bolster the Wallabies' scrum. Jones is not too fazed by the margin as long as the All Blacks put together a good performance.

Nick Farr-Jones

Former Wallaby captain

Prediction: All Blacks

Although reluctantly picking the All Blacks to win, Farr-Jones believes if the Wallabies' scrum holds they will have a chance to topple New Zealand. But he says the Wallabies will have to improve dramatically from last year for this to happen.

John Eales

Former Wallaby captain

Prediction: Wallabies

Unlike his fellow Australian, Eales is backing his country. He believes that when the Wallabies are underdogs they often get up and win and hopes this will again be the case today. Eales has seen plenty of positives this season and believes the Wallabies will win because of a solid scrum and ability to place the All Blacks lineout under enormous pressure.

- additional reporting Brenton Vannisselroy