Away the lads can win the Tri Nations

There is no secret to winning the Tri Nations. Never has been. Success is dependent on winning away from home.

The All Blacks have won the competition five times - 1996, 1997, 1999, 2002 and 2003. Each year New Zealand have won the Tri Nations, neither Australia nor South Africa have managed a victory on foreign soil.

For all the advancements made in sport science since the game went professional, no one has yet managed to work out the best way to win consistently away from home.

Statistics tell the story. In 36 Tri Nations games, New Zealand have lost 12, eight on the road. Australia have lost 19 with 14 coming on the road, while the Boks have lost 22 with 15 of those incurred away from home.

Think of it the other way. New Zealand have won 10 out of 18 games away from home, while Australia have only won four and South Africa three. That's why New Zealand have five competition wins, compared with the two chalked up by both the Wallabies and Boks.

With the stats in mind, the opening two games for New Zealand carry huge significance. If they can win in either Cape Town or Sydney, they are a good bet to win outright. Given their form against the Lions and their historical record, it is hard to see them losing at home.

The All Blacks have never lost a Tri Nations game at Eden Park and have not been beaten in Auckland since 1994. Their record at Carisbrook, where they will play the Boks, is just as formidable. They have only ever lost in Dunedin three times.

The great unknown is how Graham Henry's side will perform offshore.

Last year they were well beaten in both Sydney and Johannesburg, while Henry hasn't won a Tri Nations game outside New Zealand.

The coaching panel have admitted they got a lot of things wrong when they played overseas last year.

They worked the players too hard and didn't build in enough rest. There were also a few legacy issues in the system. Details are sketchy but there is a suggestion that when the team travelled, it did so with a portable culture not as professional as Henry would have liked.

These problems were addressed last year before the end-of-season tour. The culture was reshaped so now preparation and attitudes stay consistent regardless of venue.

That helped deliver wins in Rome, Cardiff and Paris. Can it deliver a win in Cape Town?

Most probably. Last year the Boks were able to rattle the All Blacks by playing a rush defence that put pressure on the inside backs. It induced an inordinate and disproportionate level of panic throughout the ranks.

Panic is something this All Black side no longer does, however. The inside backs have more strings to their bow, most notably an accurate kicking game. They are able to attack both tight to the breakdown and further out. A rush defence will no longer squash their creativity.

The forwards, too, have more about them now and offer set-piece security. If it's dry in Cape Town, with an afternoon kick-off, the All Blacks probably have enough strike power and forward grunt to sneak a win.

Winning in Sydney may be a lot harder. For a start, Telstra Stadium has been a bogey ground with losses in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004 and, of course, the World Cup semifinal in 2003.

Then there is the greater potency offered by the Wallabies.

Their back division is the equal of the All Blacks. George Gregan, Stephen Larkham, Matt Giteau are as tasty as Byron Kelleher, Carter and Aaron Mauger. The finishing power of Lote Tuqiri is serious, while the scavenging of George Smith and the lineout proficiency of Daniel Vickerman will keep them in possession.

The games in both Cape Town and Sydney will be real tests. And that in many ways is the fascination of this year's Tri Nations - assessing just how good this All Black side is.

The demolition of the Lions floated the idea of greatness. That claim does seem slightly premature. The Lions were an ordinary side.

Much tougher challenges lie ahead. For the first time in many years, the Tri Nations is something to be savoured.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY