This is why the Three Wise Men are selectors.
They sense a player on the rise in Luke McAlister and Ma'a Nonu adrift with his confidence in midfield.
So they have taken the punt - and it is a gamble if you listen carefully to assistant coach Wayne Smith - and returned McAlister to start in midfield against the Wallabies on Saturday.
That alliance looked to have foundered almost before it was announced as McAlister suffered a recurrence of back twinges which troubled him last month.
But after those doubts, he returned to full training yesterday in an extra 90-minute workout which suggested he will take the field this weekend.
If so, it will resume the All Black five-eighths partnership of Daniel Carter and McAlister which was last seen in a certain fateful World Cup quarter-final in Cardiff two years ago.
Smith agreed the selectors had seen little from McAlister this year after his return from his contract with Sale in England.
They knew his history and his pedigree but his return to the All Blacks had been more on the training ground than in the black jersey.
He had started one test this year against Italy and by his admission had been poor apart from his goalkicking. His other bit-part appearances and an outing for Harbour were not noteworthy either, other than for the excellence of his kicks for goal.
"At some stage he is going to come back to the level when he was here last," said Smith.
It is that hint of experiment, that sense of hope and prayer in the selection which creates discomfort for some who follow the game.
The selectors have indulged here in a leap of faith.
"Yeah, yeah, that is fair comment," Smith acknowledged. "But he has got class. We know Ma'a Nonu is a class player as well and he has delivered for us consistently. But by his own admission he hasn't been as effective in the last couple of tests matches and Luke has trained really well.
"He has a kicking game, which will be important, and at some stage he will get back to the level he was."
Just when that stage is will be the initial worry, as long as his back holds up to allow him to make the test.
All Blacks: Wise Men's leap of faith with McAlister
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