Two teams in similar fluctuating spaces have adopted contrasting approaches to the opening Bledisloe Cup test in Melbourne.
At a decisive point in their volatile campaigns one of the All Blacks or Wallabies, who share the same 3-4 ledgers this season, will take a quantumleap towards regaining the lost art of consistency.
Victory on Thursday night for the All Blacks would stretch their dominance of the Bledisloe Cup to two decades, and maintain their hopes of a once unlikely Rugby Championship title as all four teams sit on 2-2 records.
While All Blacks coach Ian Foster has largely opted to stick with his continuity approach that's gleaned mixed results, Wallabies counterpart Dave Rennie reacted to his side's 24-8 loss to the Springboks by changing half the team.
Following the All Blacks' 53-3 domination of the Pumas in Hamilton, where they ran in seven tries to emphatically rebound from defeat in Christchurch the previous week, Foster's three enforced starting tweaks essentially projects a steady as she goes mantra.
Hoskins Sotutu's first appearance of the season at No 8 combined with Scott Barrett's move to the blindside and Bordie Retallick rejoining Sam Whitelock in the second-row were entirely expected while Ardie Savea remains at home for the birth of his third child, and Shannon Frizell sits out this week with a minor rib injury. The only other change is on the bench where Akira Ioane joins Dalton Papalii.
"We feel we're getting there," Foster said in Melbourne on Tuesday of the All Blacks' quest to notch successive wins for the first time this year. "We're primed and ready to go. It's a big game in the Rugby Championship, everyone is on the same starting line with two rounds to go so it's a big weekend to make a bit of a statement and build a bit more consistency."
After two appearances for Counties Manukau in the last three months, Sotutu is eager to seize his first test since November.
"With the time of me not playing it becomes more special being named," Sotutu said. "I'm excited to get out there, play hard and make my family proud. With Ardie not being here there's big shoes to fill but I've got to do what I do and not overcomplicate it – just be me."
Hoskins Sotutu will play his first All Blacks test of the year. Photo / Photosport
The Wallabies ushering in eight starting changes presents the polar opposite image to the All Blacks. Rennie wants to spark a drastic change in performance, and he's wielded the selection axe in order to achieve it.
Recalling veteran first five-eighth Bernard Foley for his first test in three years – and first match since May – in the absence of injured playmakers Noah Lolesio and Quade Cooper will grab headlines but widespread changes to Rennie's pack are more notable for the way the Wallabies will attempt to challenge the All Blacks.
"Their hand has been forced," Foster said of Foley's inclusion. "He's more of an organising 10 – very astute, very experienced test player. I don't see it being a major change for them. He'll bring a bit of enthusiasm and love the chance to put his hand up to get back into that group. I certainly don't think they'll lose anything; they may even gain a little bit."
The Wallabies all-Rebels back-row of Rob Leota, former Crusader Pete Samu and Rob Valetini, along with locks Jed Holloway and Matt Philip, promise to bring a combative, physical approach to the breakdown that proved the blueprint for the Pumas success in Christchurch, the Springboks in Mbombela and Ireland during their 2-1 series victory against the All Blacks in July.
The All Blacks, meanwhile, are expected to target the Wallabies set piece with Barrett's switch to the blindside for the first time since the opening Ireland test offering a telling pointer to their added lineout expertise.
"We were really pleased with his test against Ireland," Foster said. "Circumstances meant we didn't get to go there again. It's an option we clearly want to keep up our sleeve and use. It's a great occasion for it.
"We see it as a key aspect of this test match. We know they've got an abrasiveness about them and their set piece.
"There's a few changes on both sides so it's going to be who has prepared well and who settles the most into their combinations."
Scott Barrett returns to the No 6 jersey for the first time since the first Ireland test. Photo / Photosport
Expectations for a typically open, attacking, free-flowing Bledisloe contest under the Marvel Stadium roof are only natural but, in a familiar theme this year, the team that squeezes and frustrates their opponent will ultimately alter the complexion of their season.
More so than their attacking variety, led by the vastly improved kicking game, that blew the Pumas away, Foster wants the All Blacks to replicate their smothering defence to stifle Australia's attacking threats.
"It was probably our best defensive game. We put Argentina under a lot of pressure and forced mistakes. That gave us a lot of opportunity to play what we wanted to do.
"We've got a lot of respect for the way Australia plays – their speed, skill, and we know if we're not up defensively you're chasing your tail. This game starts there rather than the attacking side.
"It's not a matter of going out there and trying to play open rugby. It's trying to play accurate rugby."
All Blacks: Jordie Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, David Havili, Caleb Clarke, Richie Mo'unga, Aaron Smith, Hoskins Sotutu, Sam Cane (c), Scott Barrett, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Tyrel Lomax, Samisoni Taukei'aho, Ethan de Groot.
Reserves: Dane Coles, George Bower, Fletcher Newell, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papali'i, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Quinn Tupaea.
Wallabies: Andrew Kellaway, Tom Wright, Len Ikitau, Lalakai Foketi, Marika Koroibete, Bernard Foley, Jake Gordon, Rob Valetini, Pete Samu, Rob Leota, Matt Philip, Jed Holloway, Allan Alaalatoa, David Porecki, James Slipper (c).
Reserves: Folau Fainga'a, Scott Sio, Pone Fa'amausili, Darcy Swain, Fraser McReight, Nic White, Reece Hodge, Jordan Petaia.
