All Blacks head coach Ian Foster. Photo / Getty
OPINION:
By Gregor Paul in South Africa
It's all about the exit now for All Blacks coach Ian Foster – when it's done and how it's handled.
There would no longer appear to be a road to salvation for him to miraculously find at Ellis Park. A victory is unlikely to save him from the axe.
The end is coming and all he can hope for now is that it is mercifully quick and dignified: carried out with the right mix of professionalism and empathy to avoid lasting damage to his reputation and yet more questions arising about the competency of the administration.
Hope is all Foster's got left. It is the life-raft to which he must cling for these last hours, as he must surely by now have resigned himself to the fact that the rescue vessel, when it arrives, won't be whisking him back to the good ship All Blacks, but most probably to a desert island, where he, as the first coach in the professional age to lose his job with time on the contract still to run, will be the only inhabitant.
This was never the way it was supposed to be, but alas, professional sport is a law unto itself and with great rewards come great risks.
There's the money, almost obscene and unjustifiable in the midst of a cost of living crisis.
There's the adulation of the public, the kudos for life that can be banked and the corporate speaking gigs and endorsement opportunities that can be secured.
But this only happens when the performances are polished and victories outweigh the defeats.
When the terms of expectation are not met, as has become painfully apparent, public and media scrutiny intensifies and relationships become strained.
Social media becomes a cesspit of humanity and suddenly people who care little about rugby and know even less, are decidedly opinionated about where it's all gone wrong and who is to blame.
This is the nature of professional sport: and a little like capitalism, it is governed by a set of laws that we never truly consider until things go wrong, and when they do, there is an element of squeamishness.
A sense of betrayal even that the system must be true to its nature. But just as the banks have to recall the unpayable loans in times of recession, so too does New Zealand Rugby now have to protect the All Blacks.
This may be unpleasant, but it's necessary. It's how the system functions, a sporting version of slash and burn to regenerate the forest.
While this dark side of high-performance may rarely have been seen in New Zealand, its not uncommon elsewhere and South Africa, Australia, England and Ireland have all been here: they have all, at one time or another, had to be cold and clinical and remove sitting coaches from office.
This day was always going to come because even the mighty All Blacks can't defy the laws of probability which say every team, in every code, will one day be facing problems so endemic that they can't be fixed any other way than with a brutal cleanout of coaching staff and management.
And no one should be under any illusions about whether the All Blacks are at the point of no return. They are there.
The damage is too extensive to believe that one win will change minds and earn Foster a reprieve.
He may still have the players, but he's lost the public and media and the All Blacks can't be the people's team without the people.
There's also the not insignificant matter of Silver Lake having laid down $200m on their belief that they can win millions of new All Blacks fans around the world.
This seems more like a bet than a calculated investment, when the All Blacks are currently struggling to win hearts and minds in their own backyard.
As will become clear, Silver Lake will be all about aligning narratives with brand objectives and overcoming a little adversity plays well to the values of resilience and determination but consistently losing doesn't.
Too many questions remain unanswered in the last year to be seduced by an Ellis Park victory.
There is no clarity on who the right midfield is for the All Blacks.
There's no established force at blindside and the fact that Shannon Frizell will wear that jersey at Ellis Park, while Scott Barrett continues in the boiler room and Dalton Papali'i doesn't even make the 23, feels awfully like things are being made up on the hoof.
Ethan de Groot and Fletcher Newell are in the 23 for the toughest test of the year, and yet two weeks ago neither was even in the squad.
And after two years and five tests, no decision has been made yet apparently on the preferred No 10 as Richie Mo'unga starts this week, with Beauden Barrett on the bench.
The attack game has died, the team continues to start poorly and the confidence has drained out of the players these last few weeks.
They have, rightly, taken their fair share of the blame for the continued under-performance and some will no doubt not survive when regime change comes, but such is the nature of professional sport, that when it all goes wrong on an epic scale, it's the coach who burdens nearly all the responsibility in the court of public opinion.
A win at the citadel of South African rugby will be a satisfying way to go out, rather than a convincing argument to prolong Foster's time as head coach of the All Blacks.
Now, the most important thing is that his seemingly inevitable exit is handled with the professionalism that his long service, human decency and relentless hard work deserves.
Exits are never easy but there are ways to make them easier and always, the quicker and cleaner, the better.
The morning after the test - presumably this is why NZR chief executive Mark Robinson has changed his plans to stay in Johannesburg - seems like the right time to bring down the guillotine as it would be unimaginably cruel to let Foster fly across the Indian Ocean uncertain of his future and to land in Auckland to await a blood thirsty media pack.
He deserves a better, more supportive ending than that – one that allows him to salvage his reputation and to leave office with as much dignity anyone being fired for underperformance can muster.
And that means he should be allowed to resign and yet be paid out in full. Nothing would speak better of his character and respect for the All Blacks than to fall gracefully on his sword and declare that the team, the legacy, needs a new leader to do what he couldn't.
NZR can't be seen to lack the stomach for this sort of wet work as the brand is bigger than any one individual.
Their obligation is to make a decision that is in the best interests of the All Blacks not the coaching team and their duty is to do that as professionally and as respectfully as they can.
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