Japan are coming off a defeat to Fiji, who the All Blacks beat in July.
Eddie Jones coached Japan to their greatest upset win over South Africa.
Phil Gifford is a contributing sports writer for NZME. He is one of the most respected voices in New Zealand sports journalism.
OPINION
There are very good reasons the All Blacks are red-hot favourites (currently at 12-to-one odds at the TAB to win) for their testin Yokohama on Saturday night against Japan.
The most glaring evidence for an All Black victory is that in Japan’s last test they lost to Fiji, 41-17, in Osaka. By contrast, in July in San Diego, the All Blacks beat Fiji, 47-5.
Glimmers of hope for Japan will rest in two areas.
One. This is a mix and match All Black selection, basically a diversion as New Zealand prepare for the triple challenge of England, Ireland, and France in Europe.
Two. Nine years ago, in a World Cup match in Brighton, coach Eddie Jones steered Japan to the biggest upset in professional rugby test history, Japan beating South Africa, 34-32.
But neither feels a good enough basis to think the contest in Yokohama will be close. What will be interesting is the form of several All Blacks who could become mainstays of the team from next season.
The big, promising, three
Wallace Sititi cemented his place in the test team playing as a blindside flanker. Against Japan he’ll be at No 8, a position that suits his explosive talents even better. Sititi has everything to be a top flight international back rower, including size. At 113kg he’s 4kg heavier than Kieran Read was during Read’s time as the world’s best No 8.
Cam Roigard has demonstrated huge resilience in working his way back from a horrific patella tendon rupture in his left knee six months ago. Restored at halfback, Roigard’s a player, like Sititi, you can picture as a vital member of future All Black sides.
Wallace Sititi made an immediate impact for the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport
Billy Proctor gets another start at centre, after a highly impressive debut against Fiji in the July test. At 25, Proctor is no fresh-faced kid, which helps explain his composure, demonstrated by his unerring sense of timing when putting his wings into space.
Changing for the better
There are promising signs that the deathly grip the Northern Hemisphere has on how rugby should be played is loosening.
You could start with the fact that Scotsman John Jeffrey is out of the race to replace England’s Sir Bill Beaumont as World Rugby’s chairman. The northern bloc has always been reluctant to embrace changes to speed up the game. An Australian, Brett Robinson, may not storm the barricades if he’s appointed chairman, but he does know, from the struggles rugby is having in Australia, that the more entertaining the sport is, the more chance it has to thrive in the 21st century.
Another straw in the wind came in Liam Napier’s insightful interview with Wayne Smith. Smith suggests there will be changes to how the game is run to have “fewer rucks and scrum resets, and fewer penalty kicks into touch”. Smith has always been a man who chooses his words carefully. The prospect of a more dynamic style for the game at large is like a ray of sunshine after, for example, the dour way South Africa won the 2023 World Cup final, with four penalty goals.
Look to the grassroots
Close to home, the announcement of the members of New Zealand Rugby’s Appointments and Remuneration Panel, which has taken a lazy 13 months since the Pilkington Report, basically said the way the sport was governed here was crap, may finally signal some changes to our rugby’s structure. The panel will choose the new NZR board.
The voices being heard backing provincial rugby have the evidence to back their cause to the board.
There’s been some terrific rugby in the NPC, and the final in Wellington on Saturday, pitting the big city home team against a passionate country side in Bay of Plenty, has the potential to be a classic.
Keeping the flame of the NPC burning will be a massive job for the new NZR board, but there’s been a momentum shift towards the provincial game that can’t be ignored.
Heroes for the hometowns
A perfect example of how much heartland rugby can mean came in the Meads Cup final in Te Aroha, when Thames Valley beat Mid-Canterbury, 37-29.
In a town of 4670 people, 5000 spectators were at Boyd Park for the final. Just as startling were the number of fans wearing the green jerseys of Mid-Canterbury. Heroes? In fullback Quinn Collard the Valley had a stunning kicker, who landed seven out of seven shots at goal, and booted a punt from inside his 22 that found touch near the Mid-Canterbury goal-line.
All Blacks v Japan, Saturday 6.50pm. Live commentary on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio. Live match blog at nzherald.co.nz
