Japan celebrate their upset win over Ireland at the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Photo / Photosport
Japan celebrate their upset win over Ireland at the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
The All Blacks are taking Japan seriously. Which is a wise move indeed because while the collective Kiwi memory bank may be stuck in 1995 and Marc Ellis scoring six tries and all that, geez, quite a bit has changed in the last 27 years.
Japan have undoubtedly beenthe global game’s great improvers this millennium.
Mostly Argentina are credited with that tag, but it’s Japan who have travelled the furthest in the sense they were still regularly being thumped by 50-plus by most serious nations even in 2011 and then famously beat the Springboks in 2015, before going on to make the quarter-finals of the 2019 tournament.
Japan haven’t yet proven they have the necessary resilience to hold a place in the Rugby Championship, but they have proven, many times now, that any top side silly enough to not take them seriously will pay a heavy price.
This is a team that can play, and if anyone doubts that, get on YouTube and see how Japan dismantled Ireland at the last World Cup.
Maybe the Irish were a different team back then, fading a little as they are prone to do in a World Cup year, but Japan still outsmarted them in every way, outlasted them too and the men in green raised the white flag in the final five minutes, fearful they were going to take quite the beating.
So a team good enough to take the scalps of Ireland and South Africa can hardly be dismissed as the All Blacks had five matches against those two sides earlier this year and won just two.
And what makes this encounter so potentially dangerous for the All Blacks is that the Japanese have been planning and preparing for months.
When they beat the Boks in 2015, it was a victory almost a year in the making. Coach at the time, Eddie Jones had analysed the Boks to a barely imaginable level of detail and for months on end his players prepared with just one game in mind.
There’s a similar vibe about this test against the All Blacks – with Japan conscious that they are playing not just for the chance to make yet more history, but to take a giant step towards being taken seriously as a possible entrant into the Rugby Championship from 2026.
Defeating the All Blacks would provide Japan with an irrefutably strong argument that they are ready to come on board, because after all, how often have either Argentina or Australia managed to beat the All Blacks in the last 10 years and yet they are seen as Rugby Championship must-haves?
All of this must have been playing on All Blacks coach Ian Foster’s mind as he’s picked a side that is discernibly stronger than many would have imagined, containing Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Richie Mo’unga, Caleb Clarke and Shannon Frizell, with Aaron Smith and Anton Lienert-Brown on the bench.
There’s enough heavyweight first-choice cavalry there to hint at Foster’s appreciation of the danger his side faces and yet with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Stephen Perofeta making their first starts, so too is there a nod to this also being an opportunity – probably the only one on this tour – to provide game time for those the selectors still know little about at this level.
All Blacks midfielder Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and head coach Ian Foster. Photo / Photosport
The selection of Tuivasa-Sheck at second-five is of most interest, as he’s the player with the greatest upside and the potential to turn himself into a World Cup weapon in the next 10 months.
He brings a different skillset to the other midfield options and that’s essentially why the door is still open for him to become a regular pick in the match day 23.
He’s all about his fast feet and agility and poses a different sort of threat to opposition defences than either Jordie Barrett or David Havili.
Tuivasa-Sheck lacks polish and an innate understanding of rugby, but he showed throughout Super Rugby that he can get over the gainline with his ability to dance, twist and bump through holes.
And the time may be coming when the All Blacks will have to choose between Barrett and Havili as their preferred starting 12 and if they go with the former, then it’s not automatic than the latter will default into becoming a bench regular.
Havili is a smart and versatile player but his ability to come off the bench and significantly change the All Blacks attacking shape and capability is lower than Tuivasa-Sheck’s.
The former NRL player brings an element of unpredictability to his work and so if he can deliver something compelling against Japan – show he has the all-round game required for this level – then it may well lead to him featuring again later in the tour.
