There have been analyses pointing out Robertson’s win record is marginally ahead of Ian Foster’s from his regime. However, such measures are only valid if the same opponents are engaged in each case.
A more realistic view is that Foster’s All Blacks lost the World Cup final and were thus nominally the No 2 team in the world.
Robertson’s men ended up officially the No 3 team in the world after their could-have, should-have, would-have loss to France last weekend – the exact same description applied to the World Cup final loss to South Africa last year.
Given the All Blacks lost twice to South Africa this year, that makes Foster’s All Blacks marginally ahead results-wise, in my view, as they at least booked one win in three matches against the back-to-back world champs.
Of course, many of the players in both units were the same and maybe it shouldn’t have been a surprise that the lingering sense of disappointment from 2023 is also present at the end of this year.
That’s partly down to the conservatism of the selectors early on – depending heavily on departing players like Sam Cane and TJ Perenara after the loss of such world-class players like Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith and Richie Mo’unga, and not forgetting first-teamer Shannon Frizell.
You can scarcely blame Robertson. He’d watched as his predecessor figuratively and publicly had his throat slit; survival would be considered paramount, no matter who ascended to the All Blacks coaching throne.
However, the value of promoting youth seemed only to be understood later in the year, with the starting of Wallace Sititi (only because of injury) and the rapid advance of lock Tupou Vaa’i and big loosehead Tamaiti Williams.
Both are examples of young players flowering after being given extended opportunity. Vaa’i ended the season running the lineouts and his play there and in general was high quality.
There were other pleasing aspects – not least the style played against France. It was probably the All Blacks’ best execution (in the first half anyway) of their high-octane, go-wide and offload game.
Peter Lakai’s try (showing enough to suggest he will be a regular All Black next season) came after four consecutive offloads in the tackle – from Will Jordan, Vaa’i, Caleb Clarke and Ardie Savea at his rampant best.
That they lost to France shows the high risk of their current high-reward style. It is entertaining to watch but frustrating when errors and desperate last-10-minutes defence stifle it.
France were at their best with their big forwards rumbling ahead, taking the shortest route, bursting on to short passes. New Zealand are developing the forwards to do the same thing – and that may be much more their game at the next World Cup.
For the moment, however, there are more unanswered questions about this team than positives. Apart from those already mentioned, leading positives were Scott Barrett’s growth as skipper and the clear ascension of Cam Roigard as No 1 halfback, as well as the ongoing improvements of Asafo Aumua, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Patrick Tuipulotu, and Damian McKenzie’s coming-of-age display against Ireland.
Some big questions remain for 2025, however:
Who will be No 1 first five?
Will Mo’unga return early from Japan next year, as many suspect, and usurp Beauden Barrett and McKenzie? Robertson preferred Barrett by the end of the season; he played well enough against France without setting the Stade de France alight; it seemed hard on McKenzie.
Cane’s departure will again see spotlight fall on No 6 jersey
Savea looked very good against France at No 7, which could mean a Sititi shift to 8. Samipeni Finau is nowhere near making the No 6 jersey his own – and the same could be said of Ethan Blackadder, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papali’i; someone from outside this group could yet challenge.
The second halfback role is also up for grabs
Cortez Ratima was unlucky at times and still possesses a smart pass – but his confidence seemed to wane on the northern tour. Noah Hotham, with his electric running, could come more into matters next year.
No 3 wing spot, currently held by Sevu Reece, will also be vacant, I predict
Reece was twice shown up for pace against France (once by halfback Antoine Dupont) and at other times on this tour.
He was embarrassed by the Louis Bielle-Biarrey try and it was hard not to wonder if it would have been scored if Rieko Ioane had been tracking across in defence.
Clarke and Mark Tele’a are huge assets with their power and tackle-breaking, but the All Blacks look a bit lacking in extreme pace out wide with Jordan at fullback and Ioane in the midfield.
Who will make a mark in the midfield while Jordie Barrett is at Leinster during Super Rugby?
Robertson will need back-ups for Anton Lienert-Brown, especially if Barrett is injured and/or a bit banged up from his “sabbatical”.
Candidates include the little-seen Billy Proctor, the Hurricanes’ Riley Higgins, former All Black Quinn Tupaea and the Blues’ A.J. Lam.
