There were several hints at Twickenham against England last weekend that belief in themselves was growing in the All Blacks’ ranks. That old-school mental armour plating will be needed in every minute of Saturday’s game.
Ireland have a largely experienced side, with first five Jack Crowley now settled into the No 10 jersey after starting all five games in a Six Nations championship won by Ireland at the start of the year.
The one result that might cause some unease in the Irish camp is that Ireland did lose one match in Six Nations. It was a 23-22 defeat by England, the same England the All Blacks got the better of three times this year.
Our TAB has Ireland as 5/3 favourites to beat the All Blacks, which seems a generous call for Ireland. Or perhaps the odds makers at the TAB are suffering an existential crisis of confidence, as former Wallaby player Matt Williams might put it.
A touch of back to the future
And so injury dictates that the man calling the tactics at first five for the All Blacks is again Damian McKenzie, fresh from a heroic kick that won the England test.
Assistant All Blacks coach Jason Holland conceded McKenzie “like everyone, has a little bit to do around applying pressure and how we stay on top”, but also noted that McKenzie “is a good threat for the Irish to worry about”.
Just as important will be hooker Asafo Aumua maintaining the accuracy he managed when he was such an early replacement for Codie Taylor against England. It’s one of rugby’s odd twists that a bruising, powerful 108kg forward like Aumua needs to bring almost delicate skills to feeding the lineout.
Against forwards as well drilled as the Irish pack, every set piece will be a contest. Early in his now eight-year All Blacks career, Aumua’s throwing didn’t always match his excellent general play.
The Dublin test will be a prime chance for him to show a corner has been turned.
Shivering may not be nerves
The forecast for kickoff in Dublin is for a chilly 10C, with the possibility of rain. Hopefully the rain will stay away.
If it does, Ireland and New Zealand are two teams with excellent ball running abilities, which could produce a clash for the ages.
Are those eyes still smiling?
For decades, the favourite rugby nation for the All Blacks to tour in Europe has been Ireland. There are a number of reasons for that. One is that the intensity of emotion about rugby in Ireland hasn’t been an issue. No All Blacks manager has ever been assaulted in a grandstand after a game in Ireland, as Russell Thomas was in Wales in 1978.
Another is that crowds for internationals in Dublin have traditionally been polite to a remarkable degree. In the 1980s, Grant Fox noted that when he kicked for goal at Lansdowne Rd, there was “a general shushing around the ground. It sounded like a million Irish mums calming their babes”.
Oddly enough, he found it unnerving compared with the booing, jeering and whistling he struck everywhere else in the world. “It was too bloody quiet.”
If relations between the All Blacks and Ireland have really soured, how local fans react the first time Damian McKenzie attempts a kick at goal in this test will be a great gauge of how real or otherwise the rift is.
A replay? Not for the All Blacks
Given the level of pain Irish rugby felt after the 28-24 defeat in the World Cup quarter-final last year, it’s easy to see why Saturday’s test in Dublin has the whiff of a replay about it.
In fact, just six of the All Blacks’ starting XV in Dublin played in the Paris World Cup game last year.
But six of the Irish backline in Paris are back on Saturday. Only first five Johnny Sexton has gone. Three of the Irish forwards from Paris are back, and four of the Irish reserves in Paris are starting in Dublin.
So 13 of Ireland’s starters shared in the Paris loss that one Irish writer suggested might “haunt them for the rest of their lives”.
If revenge is a factor in Saturday’s game, there’s a huge, smoldering ball of it waiting to be unpicked in the Irish shed.
