It doesn’t matter whether it’s Beauden Barrett or Damian McKenzie, the kicking from hand to gain territory or win possession has not been great in 2024. It was one of the standout aspects before the England choke – first-five Marcus Smith had his best game for England; a coming of age if ever I saw one, halted only by unnecessarily replacing him.
Among his all-round game which should have – let’s face it – won the match for England, it was noticeable that Smith’s tactical kicking was sharper than Barrett’s and McKenzie’s.
This was exacerbated by Cortez Ratima’s box kicks which, too many times, were not contestable. When Roigard came on, there was an instant and recognisable difference; he managed length, accuracy and contestability. Ratima was a bit unlucky too; the pass he delivered, intercepted by Smith to spark England’s sole try, came after he got tangled up with a late All Black arrival to the ruck – but probably should not have been thrown.
Tactical kicking is only one aspect of a test match, of course, but is important, given the All Blacks are wed to their high-risk, high-reward, get-it-wide, offload game – an attacking game plan which sees momentum often halted by mistakes, handling errors and an ongoing ability to muster so many penalties they fuel the opposition. They may not play this all-out approach in the 2027 World Cup but they will certainly want penalties and indiscipline reduced – though there are few signs of it happening yet.
This is written before the All Blacks choose their 23 for Ireland on Saturday morning but Roigard looms as an almost certain change; there’s an argument to say he should have started against England.
It will also be intriguing who becomes back-up first-five after losing Barrett to the mandatory stand-down for a head knock. Harry Plummer has come into the squad as cover and, while unlikely, there is a chance he could be promoted to the bench against Ireland.
Technically, Stephen Perofeta is the next highest ranking 10 but the only test he’s played since July was against Japan last month in a 60-point romp. In his six tests, Perofeta has never started at 10 – he’s played fullback four times. He came on as a substitute for a mere nanosecond in the 2022 loss to Argentina and for Barrett, at first-five, in that rather squeaky win against Scotland on that year’s northern tour.
So he isn’t exactly dripping with experience at first-five at international level, same as Plummer, whose match for the All Blacks XV against Munster suggested his time may be coming at this higher level, even though his test career is exactly three minutes long so far.
Perofeta covers fullback so is the far more predictable choice. Plummer has spent a fair bit of time in the midfield for the Blues and could cover that (with Jordie Barrett able to cover fullback). Plummer is no shrinking violet on defence, with a strong game in that sphere.
However, given the conservative bent of this band of All Blacks’ selectors, Perofeta is favourite to be among the possible five or six personnel or positional changes to the gameday squad that faced England, two of them injury-related and a third, Ethan de Groot, certain to return after being confined to his hotel room with a cheese sandwich and an All Blacks protocol manual. The brains trust will want as few other disruptions as possible.
There’s a chance Patrick Tuipulotu could start ahead of Tupou Vaa’i though his storming showing off the bench – and that of the bench as a whole – may persuade the selectors they have found their ideal combination there. In that context, big tighthead Pasilio Tosi did well when he came on against England and may get a second run there, meaning Tamaiti Williams could be parked for this one.
Were this any other game than Ireland, I wonder too if some thought would have been given to resting Ardie Savea. The Wellington warrior looked a bit leg weary and battered to me, though he did come on a bit in the second half against England.
Again, this management group has shown no sign of shifting the brilliant Wallace Sititi – already player of the year – to 8 and Savea to 7 and Ireland would be the wrong opponents to trial it, you’d think.
Especially as a writer in the Irish Times, someone called Jonny Watterson, wrote columns crowing that the All Blacks had lost their aura of invincibility and Ireland had now won five of the nine tests played against them since 2016. In amongst all the heroically crafted words, not one about how one of the four New Zealand wins – the World Cup quarter-final last year – was when it really mattered.
So what do you think, Jonny? If the All Blacks have lost their “aura”, Ireland haven’t yet found their way past the quarter-finals of rugby’s most important tournament. You have to have an aura to lose it in the first place.
All Blacks v Ireland, Saturday 9.10am
Live commentary on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio. Live match blog at nzherald.co.nz
