Ian Foster could be as many as five starting tweaks for the second test, writes Liam Napier. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
With the series on the line in Dunedin, the All Blacks are expected to minimise changes.
Injuries and further Covid absences will force Ian Foster's hand, though, while other returning incumbents push for inclusion. There could be as many as five starting tweaks for the second test.
Here's where those could come.
Second-five
Possibly the toughest selection decision of the week. Quinn Tupaea delivered a largely composed first test display to carry his Super Rugby form with the Chiefs through to the test arena. Tupaea's quick hands under pressure put Leicester Fainga'anuku in space in the lead-up to Jordie Barrett's try, and he was on hand to claim Beauden Barrett's pinpoint grubber. Tupaea made sound decisions in between times and brought a direct presence to the All Blacks midfield.
David Havili was, however, expected to start in Tupaea's place before contracting Covid last week. I spoke with Havili on Tuesday and he described his Covid experience as a head cold, declaring himself ready to go this week. While it would be harsh on Tupaea if Havili's breadth of skill remains the All Blacks' preference at second-five he is likely to return to start provided he proves his full fitness.
Wing
Will Jordan's availability – after returning from Covid – could alter the All Blacks wings. Jordan featured in 11 tests last year and has earned 10 of his 13 caps starting on the right edge. One of the form prospects from fullback for the Crusaders throughout Super Rugby, Jordan is guaranteed to regain the No 14 jersey if he is healthy.
His return would likely push Sevu Reece to the left wing, with Leicester Fainga'anuku potentially dropping out of the squad. Fainga'anuku made a strong fist of his test debut with limited chances but Reece's high involvement and dynamic feet are impossible to leave out at present. Caleb Clarke is yet to resume full training after the hamstring strain he suffered six weeks ago with the Blues.
Lock
Sam Whitelock's delayed onset concussion that is expected to rule him out for the remainder of the series could force a two-pronged reshuffle in the forward pack. Tupou Vaa'i testing positive for Covid is unfortunate timing, as he earned the chance for a starting crack after impressing last year and with the Chiefs this season. Down on locking options, the All Blacks are essentially forced to switch Scott Barrett from blindside to partner Brodie Retallick in the second row which shines a spotlight on the lineout.
Patrick Tuipulotu's 41 tests of experience offer a handy replacement to usher into the squad – following an eligibility exemption from the NZ Rugby board – after his return from a six-month stint in Japan. Throwing him straight into a starting role after one club game for Ponsonby last weekend, though, would be a big ask.
Blindside
Barrett's industrious performance on the side of the scrum at Eden Park – he made 18 tackles and six carries – pushed the expectation that the All Blacks would persevere with him in the No 6 jersey this week. That was before they lost two locks.
Akira Ioane was held back last week due to a lingering foot injury but after finishing 2021 as the incumbent blindside, he is likely to slot into that role this week. Dalton Papalii is the other option at six. He offers a strong ball carrying and defensive presence, as well as adding to the breakdown threat, but he's yet to start a test on the blindside and, with the All Blacks lineout already somewhat compromised, Ioane appeals as the more conventional option with Papalii able to cover both sides of the scrum from the bench.
Reserves
Patrick Tuipulotu replaces Pita Gus Sowakula as locking cover and Quinn Tupaea may drop to the bench but the most intriguing decision comes at halfback where, hopefully, Folau Fakatava is injected for this test debut on his home Super Rugby patch.
Finlay Christie didn't put a foot wrong at Eden Park but a guaranteed dry track and familiar surroundings under the roof appeal as the ideal environment to thrust Fakatava into the mix. His inclusion could break the game open in the final quarter and would certainly put Irish forwards on notice around the ruck.
Possible All Blacks squad: George Bower, Codie Taylor, Ofa Tuungafasi, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Akira Ioane, Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett, Sevu Reece, David Havili, Rieko Ioane, Will Jordan, Jordie Barrett.
Reserves: Samisoni Taukei'aho, Karl Tu'inukuafe, Angus Ta'avao, Patrick Tuipulotu, Dalton Papalii, Folau Fakatava, Richie Mo'unga, Quinn Tupaea.
"It's not fair on my team-mates or the club that they think I am wanting to go elsewhere. It's not the case. We haven't spoken to any other clubs.
"I have a contract in place which means I am 100 per cent going to New Zealand next year."
That was Walsh two months ago, on May 4, addressing widespread speculation he would break the final year of his contract with the Warriors and return to Australia next year.
Circumstances change, sure, and Walsh has a young daughter to consider but it's hard to believe there was no truth to the constant rumours that Walsh's management was then putting the feelers out to the Broncos and Dolphins.
From a being true to your word perspective, Walsh should learn plenty from this episode. No matter the reasoning, many Warriors fans will feel he is walking out on the club.
If we're honest, Walsh's development will be greatly enhanced by returning to the Broncos. A career at the Warriors is only likely to seriously inhibit his superb talent, so in that sense, I wish him well.
For the remainder of this season, I'd shift Walsh to standoff to utilise his running threat and lethal cut-out ball, and leave Chanel Harris-Tavita at fullback.
One from 17 to four-from-four. Transformations don't get more compelling. After sweeping the Black Caps 3-0, England produced their best performance under Brendon McCullum with a remarkable comeback victory against India this week. At this rate, the former New Zealand skipper will soon be invited from the pavilion to dine with the queen.
McCullum's four test victories have come at home. Securing success in foreign conditions remains a yet-to-be-proven quest - yet you can already sense England's confidence mounting ahead of next year's home Ashes series.
The Black Caps would no doubt love McCullum back when his four-year tenure finishes. But with a $3.9 million pay packet across that time, will they ever be able to afford him?
Record: 9/20 (-$9)
Confidence in the Irish to keep the first test close was misplaced, with the All Blacks 1-12 tip well blown out. This week, with conditions under the Dunedin roof for the second test guaranteed to be hard and fast, I'm going with the over 52.5 total match points at $1.90.
Do you think other sports will follow New Zealand cricket's lead following their landmark agreement to close the pay equity gap between the women and men? Claire, New Plymouth
It's a stake-in-the-ground moment for sure, one that will apply pressure on others, namely rugby, to follow suit. Men and women receiving the same match fees in limited-overs cricket and the White Ferns earning between $142,000 and $163,000 - double their previous deal - speaks to genuine progression and investment from NZ Cricket. In many ways, they've set the bar.
• Send in your questions to liam.napier@nzme.co.nz
The missing rugby jersey was found after a two-year search.