As the All Blacks prepare to make sweeping personnel changes for their 14th and final test of the year in Italy, progress and evolution is evident. A team that started this year with two scratchy home escapes against England are threatening to come of age.
Scott Robertson’s men are clearly not there yet, though.
Sunday’s loss to France in Paris sits alongside the fade against the World Cup-winning Springboks at Ellis Park in early September as the greatest laments of Robertson’s first season at the helm.
When the time soon comes to reflect, those deflating defeats will colour the complexion of this campaign that could’ve, should’ve, had the All Blacks put France away, been overwhelmingly positive.
Riding momentum and confidence from claiming the significant scalps of England and Ireland the All Blacks manoeuvred France into a position where they were there for the taking, only to let them off the hook.
Of their four defeats in 2024, this one will be the rock under the beach towel that niggles the All Blacks all summer.
With their blueprint of dominant set-piece foundations, ball movement and attacking chaos, the All Blacks had France out on their feet.
Setting aside frustrations with the officials, they botched multiple big moments to blow the chance to deliver definitive evidence they are verging on regaining their vaunted status.
The final-quarter French review will not be pleasant viewing for the coaching team or players.
From Will Jordan’s high skip ball that forced Caleb Clarke to be bundled into touch to Beauden Barrett’s errant grubber, Rieko Ioane dropping one ball, Scott Barrett turning down several opportunities – Damian McKenzie kicked four second-half penalties, three in the last 18 minutes – to take the ruthless option of chasing a potential match-winning try and the decision to replace Cam Roigard while he outplayed Antoine Dupont could all be highlighted.
The All Blacks are improving under Robertson but, at this delicate stage in their development curve, third in the world ranking seems an accurate depiction.
Skill execution continues to lack consistency from one week to the next and while the ball-in-hand mentality against France largely worked, there is a need to develop a short kicking strategy to shape the defence.
Another area the All Blacks must address is their ruck presentation and defence. Referee interpretations can render this source of possession a frustrating lottery but as the All Blacks fully commit to their fast-paced attacking intent, the opposition will increasingly target their breakdown in attempts to counter that need for speed.
Ireland, often illegally, enjoyed success there during the underwhelming spectacle in Dublin to make Cortez Ratima’s life a misery. And while Roigard’s larger frame dealt with similar consuming pressure well in Paris, the All Blacks often lacked urgency and accuracy with their cleanouts. This became a telling issue as the contest slowed to France’s desired speed which contributed to the slew of late All Blacks’ errors.
With the ball in hand, France didn’t often penetrate the All Blacks’ defence but, when they did, it almost exclusively came from mistakes or through punching forward around the fringes.
While Dupont’s influence on this match wasn’t as compelling as many expected, his subtle ability to take one or two steps from the base, to hold up his pass and suck in defenders, exposed the All Blacks’ ruck defence on several occasions.
Peter Lakai, with 15 carries and 12 tackles, was a revelation in his 78-minute shift. In his second test, the 21-year-old proved he should have been in the squad from the outset – after being called in following injuries to Luke Jacobson, Ethan Blackadder and Dalton Papali’i – and that he is the future of the All Blacks’ loose forwards.
As a collective, though, the All Blacks forward pack must strike the balance between attacking brilliance and defensive steel. A loose forward trio comprising Ardie Savea, Wallace Sititi and Lakai appeals on many levels but it perhaps lacks a traditional enforcer that has historically served the All Blacks from blindside.
Whether it’s a system or attitude adjustment, the All Blacks must amend their ruck defence when confronted with huge physical packs such as the French who attack through the middle.
In a global context, with England suffering three losses in succession at Twickenham for the first time since 2006, Warren Gatland’s Wales hitting rock bottom, Ireland appearing to stagnate and the Wallabies striking a surprise and welcome resurgence under Joe Schmidt, the All Blacks are reasonably well placed.
Tupou Vaa’i, Tamaiti Williams, Sititi, Clarke and Lakai have been big movers to cast themselves as central figures for years to come.
The All Blacks continue to find other answers, such as Mark Tele’a is far superior to Sevu Reece on the right wing and Roigard confirming his status as the premier halfback by some distance.
But so, too, do questions remain particularly at blindside flanker.
This year’s record, which stands at 9-4, will surely improve with a comfortable victory over the struggling Italians widely expected to propel the All Blacks to finish their season with a definitive pass mark in Turin.
With the promise of further evolution in personnel, playing style and execution, Robertson’s All Blacks should eventually shed elements of their lingering enigma.
