Newstalk ZB rugby commentator Elliott Smith and NZ Herald senior sports writer Liam Napier discuss the All Blacks team ahead of Saturday's Bledisloe Cup rugby test.
THREE KEY FACTS
Sam Cane will become the 13th All Black to play 100 tests when he starts against Australia today
The test against the Wallabies will likely be Cane’s last on Kiwi soil before leaving for Japan next year
There are no guarantees the former captain will be selected for the All Blacks’ northern tour as Scott Robertson sits back to ponder the future
Liam Napier has been a sports journalist since 2010, and his work has taken him to World Cups in rugby, netball and cricket, boxing world title fights and Commonwealth Games.
OPINION
Sam Cane’s milestone match raises a pertinent, pressing question. Who is the next long-term All Blacks openside flanker?
Cane’s 100th test – and the adversity he’s overcome to reach that treasured juncture – will be celebrated against the Wallabies in Wellington this weekend.
But as the Rugby Championship draws to a close and Robertson sits back to ponder the future, there are no guarantees the former captain will be selected for the All Blacks’ northern tour.
Beyond the next six All Blacks tests, Cane will conclude his career in Japan, having committed to a lucrative three-year contract with Suntory to usher in a definitive changing of the guard in the pivotal No 7 jersey.
And at this point, Cane’s successor is decidedly uncertain. Just as Cane was long earmarked to succeed Richie McCaw so, too, was Dalton Papali’i identified as the next to receive the baton.
For the last three years, Papali’i was Cane’s heir apparent. During Ian Foster’s tenure there were times when Cane battled injuries and Papali’i’s compelling form sparked calls for his elevation to start.
After amassing 36 tests – the bulk of those since 2021 – Papali’i has, however, fallen out of favour under Robertson. Papali’i began Robertson’s reign as the preferred All Blacks openside, starting four tests against England and Argentina.
An untimely thumb injury opened the door for Cane to start the first test against the Springboks at Ellis Park – and Papali’i has since been left out in the cold.
Papali’i is 26 years old and nearing his prime but with Robertson seemingly losing faith by preferring Cane to start and Luke Jacobson off the bench in recent weeks, others could push past the Blues openside.
A transition that not so long ago seemed locked in motion now evokes vast debate. Alongside the preferred first five-eighths, the composition of the All Blacks loose forwards is among the most pressing selection questions Robertson faces.
Dalton Papali'i against Henry Slade. Photo / Photosport
Wallace Sititi’s continued emergence – as the find of the season – promotes the prospect of Ardie Savea switching from No 8 to openside flanker.
Four tests into his rookie test year Sititi has, to this point, proven a revelation at blindside flanker. Yet his natural home, as was evident for the Chiefs this year, is at the back of the scrum, where his destructive ball-carrying is best utilised.
Ethan Blackadder has started two tests at openside flanker but his favoured role, and where he’s delivered his premier rugby for the All Blacks and Crusaders, is blindside.
When everyone is fully fit, the All Blacks’ best-balanced loose forward combination appears to be Blackadder, Savea and Sititi at six, seven and eight.
That mix ticks all boxes – from ball-carrying to defensive workrate, lineout options and breakdown turnover exponents.
Samoan-born Sititi is yet to encounter the full breadth of adversity and styles in evidence across test rugby’s global scene. Therefore, an inherent danger exists in building him up too soon.
Speak to anyone who knows the 22-year-old well, though, and they extol the wisdom that surpasses his experience. And, having attached himself at the hip to Savea, Sititi will continue to blossom from his mentor’s guidance.
Ardie Savea (left) and Wallace Sititi. Photo / Photosport
The other prospect who will undoubtedly shape the future of the All Blacks loose forwards is 21-year-old Wellington and Hurricanes talent Peter Lakai.
While the loose forwards are stacked as it is, with Sititi, Savea, Cane, Jacobson, Papali’i and Blackadder competing for game time, Lakai must be included for the northern tour.
Robertson carried Lakai in his first wider squad earlier this year but he has since returned to help propel Wellington to lead the NPC. Already among New Zealand’s most dynamic, dominant ball-carrying loose forwards, Lakai is the future and the now.
Such is their age profile, Lakai and Sititi – fitness permitting – will feature prominently for the All Blacks in the next two World Cup cycles. This is where Robertson must confront difficult decisions for his northern tour squad.
Striking the delicate balance between winning now and grooming for the future is not easy. But, beyond this weekend, why wait to include Lakai? Sititi has proved that the sooner the All Blacks invest, the sooner they will reap the rewards.
Lakai is equally comfortable at No 8 and, therefore, injects speed and power to his consistent ball-carrying punch. Like Sititi, his athletic prowess belies his youth.
For the All Blacks, though, Lakai’s future appears destined to be at openside.
Ahead of his final home test, Cane was asked on Tuesday to assess the next generation of openside flankers. His initial uncertainty reflects where the All Blacks sit with the position.
“I haven’t really thought about that,” Cane said. “At the moment in the All Blacks the loose forwards are really versatile. All three loose forward skillsets are transferable in terms of the athletes we’ve got.
“Ethan Blackadder, Luke Jacobson, Dalton Papali’i can all play seven at a really high level. I’m not sure who’s after that. There’s three pretty good players there.
“I’ve played a lot with those guys now. We’ve got a good friendship. I don’t see myself sitting above them with that much more knowledge by any means. They’re really smart footballers. We have a loosie catch-up every week where we share what we’ve learnt during the week and how we can push each other to be better.
“I’d like to think I’m an open book but I’m also not someone trying to force their opinions and thoughts down their throats, but if they wanted to know something I’m always willing to share.”
As Cane dons the All Blacks seven jersey one final time on home soil this weekend, the need for evolution draws near.
Papali’i, Savea, Blackadder, Jacobson, Lakai. Who will Robertson anoint as the next chosen openside?
