We hear, particularly at World Cups, how experience matters: how there is a heightened value attached to those players who have amassed a significant number of test appearances.
What’s implicit in this quantitative assessment is a linear assumption that the more an individual plays, the more an individual learns and adapts, and hence, by extended logic, someone with 100 caps is of more value to a team than someone with just one.
But experience also has to be considered through a qualitative lens, and questions asked whether time in a role has advanced that player’s ability to be effective in the role?
It doesn’t always follow that players learn from mistakes or build the muscle memory or mental application to create a data bank which they can tap into based on what has and hasn’t worked in the past.
Experience shouldn’t be confused for progress or recognised to be a separate and distinct skillset, and the danger of treating it as such is that it creates a self-sustaining cycle to preserve the argument – as players who have been around for a bit can continue to be picked almost exclusively on the basis that they have been around for a bit.
All of which has to be considered in trying to make sense of the All Blacks’ selectors decision to persevere with veteran halfback TJ Perenara for this week’s return clash with the Pumas.
There was always a need for the selectors to be careful not to overreact in the wake of last week’s loss and attribute too many of the failings to the wrong selections.
The challenge was to wade through the detail and assess what weighting poor execution had on proceedings, how much of a factor loose game management had on the outcome, and whether changing individuals in some positions would be likely to lead to a better performance.
Certainly, to those not inside the camp, there was a definitive sense that if the All Blacks had a plan to generate a higher-tempo attack, they backed the wrong horse in TJ Perenara to deliver it.
He won his selection because of his experience, his time at the coalface being deemed such that he can deliver the astuteness of decision-making, composure and controlled game management that the All Blacks needed.
But these qualities have never been Perenara’s strongest suits. His career has been defined by his athleticism, his incredible capacity to run support lines, make telling tackles, pull off big, individual moments and provide an inspirational focal point.
Scattered in his portfolio, though, are a few brain explosions – the mad chip out of defence against England in 2022, and his charged-down clearance on the same ground in 2018 – and throughout his 11-year test career, the nation has never quite managed to watch him play for the All Blacks without their hearts leaping into their mouths.
That’s not to say his experience is not without value. He’s a warrior, a fierce competitor, a consummate professional, a role model, and the perfect senior figure to have within the squad to mentor, guide and advise the emerging Cortez Ratima and Noah Hotham.
Perenara can instil within the next generation a clear understanding of what sort of workrate they need to deliver to succeed, what sort of processes they need to set up to play at their best and what level of dedication it takes to continually earn selection.
But it doesn’t naturally follow that his experience of having played 83 tests makes him the best choice to start for the All Blacks.
He’s also leaving for Japan at the end of the year and every test he starts now is one that Ratima doesn’t – and it’s one less opportunity to develop a young No 9 who is, barring injury, likely to be a critical part of the All Blacks’ match-day 23 throughout this World Cup cycle.
While everyone wants to believe in Robertson’s ability to rejuvenate the way the national team plays, this perseverance with Perenara is shaking confidence about how or if this is going to happen.
International rugby is essentially a process of generating momentum and then capitalising on it.
Some teams, like England and South Africa, play by inches and slowly squeeze and grind opponents, but the All Blacks have shown they are most effective when they play with speed and intensity, and constantly change the point of attack.
Ratima has looked better suited to facilitating momentum and the only explanation as to why he remains on the bench is that the All Blacks want to play a slower, more controlled game with Perenara leading it for the first 50 minutes or so, and then make the switch to up the tempo for the last half-hour.
Robertson, when asked about whether a discussion had been had about making a change at halfback, said: “TJ can play. He’s got an opportunity to go again this weekend and lead the team from the No 9 jersey and he has got a good combination going with Cortez and they have worked well together”.
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