Questions loom over what’s going wrong with the All Blacks, Warriors mauled by the Panthers & Kiwi on top at Belgian Grand Prix. Video / Sky Sport / Spark Sport
OPINON:
When the schedule for 2022 was released, no one could have predicted that the All Blacks test against Argentina in Hamilton would become the most important game in this country since the 2011 World Cup final.
All Blacks players and coaches say their reputation is on the line everytest they play, but not like this.
Rarely, if ever, has a one-off test had so many careers riding on it, because rarely, if ever, has there been a prolonged run of results quite like the sequence which began last November with the 29-20 loss to Ireland.
That defeat in Dublin was followed by another in Paris, with two more following this year in July, and two more in August to leave the All Blacks in a never-before position of having just two wins from their last eight tests.
It's left the game here teetering on the edge of the abyss – because intertwined in this story of on-field failure is one of off-field bungling by New Zealand Rugby, which has strained relationships with players and international partners and left fans with a general sense that their sport is now locked into a pattern of lurching from one disaster to the next.
Defeat for the All Blacks this week would be a catastrophe too far and would render Ian Foster's role as head coach untenable and would no doubt encourage those who have already called for changes in the executive and governance of the sport to campaign yet harder.
Understanding the context of this dire run is important, because there are mitigating factors that created unprecedented factors against which the All Blacks have had to battle, and partly explain the predicament in which the team find themselves.
Richie Mo'unga is tackled by Tomas Lavanini and Mayco Vivas. Photo / Photosport
They only played a third of their tests in 2020 and 2021 at home. The rest were offshore where they had to live in a secure bio-bubble – something they had to endure for 15 weeks straight last year.
The break-up of Super Rugby left New Zealand's players on a strange diet of local derbies and transtasman fixtures in 2020 and 2021 and between lockdowns and quarantine requirements, significant numbers of individuals have had their conditioning seriously compromised.
But as detrimental and difficult as these circumstances have been, they don't explain entirely why the All Blacks have only won 25 per cent of their last eight tests.
There have been coaching competency issues and this is the crux of why this test in Hamilton is so critical for the future of rugby in this country.
New Zealand Rugby's board has so far dealt with the issue of coaching competency with a light-touch surgical approach.
Two assistants – John Plumtree and Brad Mooar – were let go after the July series loss to Ireland and when the team arrived home from South Africa, Joe Schmidt was elevated to the role of attack coach.
It was a decision labelled by some as soft and conservative, but in fairness to a board that has at times struggled to make well-considered judgments, there was at least sound rationale to continue with Foster.
New All Blacks assistant coaches Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt. Photo / Photosport
He has been part of a coaching group that has won a World Cup and bringing Schmidt more directly into the fold gives the All Blacks a deeper insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the Northern Hemisphere opponents with whom they have struggled so much in the last few years.
But as much as the move to retain Foster after the Springboks series can be justified, and as much as those who support the decision will plead for patience, back-to-back defeats to Argentina will kill any prospect of an already frustrated fan base turning up to watch a team they will believe is fundamentally broken.
If the All Blacks fall to yet another defeat this weekend, the board will have two options to consider.
Option one would be to remove Foster and promote Schmidt to head coach on an interim basis through to the World Cup.
The problem with this scenario is that it has taken two and a half years to entice Schmidt back into the international arena and he's given every impression that he simply doesn't want to be a head coach again.
An even bigger problem would be the so-called optics – as it would have to be seen as a chronic failure in high-performance management, planning and process for both the All Blacks and Black Ferns to go to their World Cups with interim coaching teams.
Which takes us to the other route, one best described as the nuclear option. That would be to bring in Scott Robertson as head coach, who, by all accounts, would instigate a cleanout that would see forwards coach Jason Ryan and possibly defence coach Scott McLeod as the only survivors.
Crusaders coach Scott Robertson. Photo / Photosport
Robertson's view, according to those who have heard it, is that the All Blacks are already broken, and he'd want to rebuild with Ryan, Blues coach Leon MacDonald, Hurricanes coach Jason Holland and McLeod, with the entire existing wider management team – from masseur, to nutritionist, to mental skills coach – replaced with his own people.
The cost of this cleanout would sit somewhere between $2m to $3m and it would come with two significant risks – the new regime would be decidedly light on international experience and three Super Rugby teams would be scrambling for head coaches on short notice.
Again, it won't play well for the executive and governance regime if they are indeed confronted with an untenable coaching scenario this weekend just two weeks after they backed Foster through to the World Cup, and only have high-risk options to consider as alternatives.
The one thing that may save the situation is if Schmidt and Robertson can be persuaded to work together.
That's the great unknown – whether there is a scenario in which Foster, Ryan, Schmidt can become Robertson, Ryan, Schmidt and the international experience and intelligence of the latter is not lost to the All Blacks, and neither MacDonald nor Holland are removed from their Super Rugby posts.
The board could handle a back-office cleanout and a straight swap – Robertson for Foster – but for now all they are hoping for is a comprehensive All Blacks win in Hamilton.
That's the best way for all these problems to disappear.
