The art of selection – knowing when to pull the drop lever – is among the most difficult for any rugby coach to master. Scott Robertson’s approach, as the All Blacks seek to salvage swift redemption at Eden Park against the Pumas this weekend, is to tread his highly conservative path.
Four starting changes suggests Robertson has swung the axe after last week’s damaging loss to the Pumas in Wellington. With his back pressed to the wall the reality, though, is Robertson has instead leaned heavily on experience to immediately dig the All Blacks out of their sizable early-season hole.
In a brutal results-driven industry, Robertson’s tenure, like those before him, will live or die by his selections. Whether they are data-driven, gut or cohesion-related, they are his to own.
But for Ethan de Groot’s neck injury, which paved the way for Crusaders prop Tamaiti Williams’ elevation, the All Blacks would have started an unchanged forward pack from the one that was upstaged at the breakdown and in the collisions by the Pumas in Wellington.
The loose forward trio remains intact, with Sam Cane’s recall to the bench at Wallace Sititi’s expense the only tweak.
With nothing radical or revolutionary in the offing, Robertson clearly trusts and believes strategic shifts, such as the pack attempting imposing vastly greater physical intent by taking the direct route, will bring more pay than injecting personnel changes.
“Every All Blacks forward pack after a result like that gets a chance for a bit of redemption and another opportunity,” Robertson said. “They’ve owned it, we all have. We’ve got to move forward now.
“We’ve talked about being direct and getting us going forward. When we do it we do it really well – we just need to see more of it.”
Cane’s recall for his first test since relinquishing the captaincy after the one-point World Cup final defeat is curious in that the All Blacks will field four loose forwards – Dalton Papali’i, Ardie Savea, Ethan Blackadder and Cane – who have started tests at openside.
Logic suggests greater contrast in the back row is needed, particularly from a ball-carrying perspective.
Composure and leadership in last week’s final-quarter meltdown was, however, distinctly lacking. Cane’s presence in that period should add a sense of calm.
“He’s so experienced and has the ability to play a couple of positions,” Robertson said of Cane, who will cover seven and eight from the bench.
“He knows what these big test matches are all about and his influence on the group is a little bit of gold. The timing and his tone of delivering information is pretty special. It’s another opportunity for him in the black jersey.”
Inconsistencies are evident across the backline selections, too.
While Sevu Reece pays the price for his bat-back that cost a try and Anton Lienert-Brown’s missed tackles in the midfield leads to a flip-flop on Rieko Ioane’s one-week demotion, unwavering faith is maintained in TJ Perenara despite his difficulties kicking from the base and slow delivery.
“TJ can play,” Robertson said.
“He gets an opportunity to go again this weekend and lead the team in the nine jersey. He’s got a good combination going with Cortez [Ratima]. They’ll work well together again this weekend.
“Getting out of our back fence has been really important to us. That was really clear from the weekend and we’ve put enough time into it this week. Everyone has a role to play for us to exit well.”
Robertson is on record that he views Will Jordan as a fullback first but his promotion to the right wing, alongside Caleb Clarke on the left edge, makes sense with rain forecast for Saturday night.
Clarke brings a point of difference with his power game while his and Jordan’s proficient aerial work is a desirable asset in wet conditions.
To this point at least, Robertson is intent on retaining faith in Damian McKenzie to improve his game management from first receiver.
“We’ve gone for keeping a few combinations together and also a little bit of experience and what we think we need for this weekend, especially with a bit of wet weather coming.
“We believe Will’s skillset is perfect for this combination. Beauden [Barrett] is playing really good footy and they’ve worked together closely. They execute really well together so their experience we felt was best for this weekend.”
Minimal selection changes shines a spotlight on the All Blacks ability to lose and learn.
Throughout history this team has a proven track record of failing and fixing. The weight of expectation to deliver a similar decisive response now rests heavily on Robertson’s men.