All Blacks: This time, the axe should fall

Rodney So'oialo's All Blacks days could be numbered. Photo / Getty Images

There is always a danger of over-analysing bumbling All Black performances. It's all-too easy to see a bad day at the office as something more; as evidence of terminal decline; a reason for panic and a mass clean-out.

To be too bold in calling for change runs the risk of being made to look silly later. The All Blacks have never really done ruts, certainly not in terms of results. The only sustained bouts of defeat were 1949 and 1998; where the side were unable to break a losing streak.

Their legacy deserves respect; for perspective and sanity to prevail. Even last year the All Blacks were on the cusp of something dire. They lost their five-year unbeaten record at home to the Springboks in Dunedin and followed it up with a dreadful loss in Sydney.

They regrouped, settled on a more balanced game plan and won their next nine tests. The parallels between this year and last are many. The All Blacks in 2009 have lost two of their three Tri Nations tests as they did last year.

Quality has declined markedly in each performance in 2009 as it did in 2008. Most striking is that in the All Blacks third test last year, in Sydney, they tried to run the ball from everywhere, play a high-risk game that was aiming to kill the opposition aerobically, which is also how they tried to play last week.

In Sydney they lost 34-19; in Durban their execution failed again and they lost 31-19.

In 2008, the All Blacks responded to their Sydney loss by overhauling the game plan. The focus went on gaining field position, tightening up the scrum, using the forwards more to pick and drive and using the width of the field only in opposition territory.

They took care of the basics. They respected what test match football is all about and, with the foundation laid, the natural flair and skill of the backs was better able to shine.

Fixing the game plan for the Sydney test will be critical and will not be easy. There are bigger faults in the 2009 All Blacks than the 2008 crew.

Personnel changes are needed and some of those will be short-term, others will be permanent with half an eye on the 2011 World Cup.

What's become apparent in the past two months is that some of the current squad have run their course and are not likely to figure in the selectors' longer-term planning.

Top of that list is Joe Rokocoko. Big Joe has veered so far off the path, it looks as if he'll never get back. The explosive pace has gone, the instincts dulled. His basic skills have regressed and, in the current game, there just isn't room for wings who can't deal with the high ball or stick one up.

It's possible his current lull is temporary, that a stint with Auckland and then the Blues could restore him to something more like his old self. It's possible, but it's also possible that Manawatu could win the Air New Zealand Cup.

What the past two weeks have shown beyond dispute is that the All Blacks can't have two out-and-out, attack-driven wings. Sitiveni Sivivatu remains the most potent runner in the side and is a vital All Black wild card. He is a player who can open the game, who can spark something from nothing and give the All Blacks an element of unpredictability.

Sticking with Sivivatu means no room for Rokocoko as Cory Jane and Rudi Wulf stack as better partners, or even Isaia Toeava.

Rokocoko is off contract at the end of next year and, unless there is a dramatic remodelling of his skill-set, a stint overseas looms as by then he'll know for sure he's not part of the All Blacks' World Cup picture.

Rodney So'oialo's days could be numbered, too. The No 8 has made not much go a long way. His game has been built on his phenomenal aerobic capacity and relentless commitment in the collision. He's not a rugby visionary. He's no Zinzan Brooke. So'oialo is a modern warrior - proof that in the game today, a big ticker, a love of contact and resilience can get you to the top.

But there is a feeling his engine is starting to lose power. So'oialo has been at this for almost 10 years - he's been battered in that time and there is a sense he might just have hit the wall just as Jerry Collins did earlier last year. There will be a reluctance to dispense with So'oialo, given what he has contributed and because he has shown loyalty in his decision to sign-on until 2011.

But this is the All Blacks and Kieran Read is performing. He's younger, on the way up and looks to have a big future in the international game.

Neemia Tialata must also be on borrowed time. In 36 tests he has never quite convinced and there is no reason to believe he will do so anytime soon.Owen Franks and John Afoa already stack as better options and should Carl Hayman return next year, as seems almost certain, there won't be any room for Tialata.

Jason Eaton will need to start providing some compelling reasons as to why he should stay in the frame. Isaac Ross is the future - rangy, skilled and athletic; he'll be world class when he learns more about the physical side.

Ali Williams, if he can overcome his injuries and restore himself to full health, Brad Thorn - forget his age - and Anthony Boric will still be contenders in 2011 as will the returning Chris Jack with Bryn Evans also featuring in any World Cup-thinking.

Eaton hasn't been the same player since he incurred a serious injury in 2007 and hope that he ever will be is fading fast.

The recent performances of both Mils Muliaina and Andrew Hore are a concern. But these are class players, men you would back to recover their form and produce the goods.

Stephen Donald has played quite well, shown some nice touches and been accurate when kicking for goal. His limitations have also been exposed, however, and his place will come under jeopardy when the likes of Aaron Cruden, Colin Slade and Stephen Brett enjoy extended game time in the Super 14.

Potential 2011 World Cup squad:
Owen Franks, Carl Hayman, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, Aled de Malmanche, John Afoa, Tony Woodcock, Isaac Ross, Ali Williams, Anthony Boric, Brad Thorn, Victor Vito, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Adam Thomson, Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu, Brendon Leonard, Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden, Luke McAlister, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Richard Kahui, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Mils Muliaina, Cory Jane, Rudi Wulf, Israel Dagg.