All Blacks: Super 15 form plays vital role

Hosea Gear has been exciting on tour but his place in next year's Cup squad is not assured. Photo / Getty Images

Graham Henry says the number is about six but as many as 10 players on this All Black tour could fail to make the World Cup squad.

Originally the tour was hailed as a dry run for the World Cup but the selectors have shied away from that billing as it has become increasingly apparent significant changes are likely in their 30-man squad for next year's tournament.

Achievements on this trip will count for much but Anthony Boric, Hika Elliot, Liam Messam, Daniel Braid, Andy Ellis, Alby Mathewson, Stephen Donald, Hosea Gear, Joe Rokocoko and Isaia Toeava face a nervous eight months.

As Henry said in Dublin, there is a core group of players - long-timers, leaders and world-class talent - who are clearly going to be involved in the World Cup.

There is also a burgeoning grey area that will be decided by a number of variables: most notably Super 15 form next year, injuries and the final balance the selectors want to strike for the tournament.

"There's probably half a dozen not on this tour because of injury, and some of the players on this tour are going to have to perform in the Super 15 to gain selection for the World Cup squad," said Henry.

That injury list is impressive - Ali Williams, Adam Thomson, Corey Flynn, Piri Weepu, Richard Kahui, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Israel Dagg.

Making life tougher for the players on the edge is the fact there are a host of recent All Blacks who missed this trip for reasons of form - Victor Vito, Colin Slade, Aaron Cruden, Zac Guildford and Rene Ranger.

All of this group have been given specific areas to work on over summer and have been asked to use Super 15 as the vehicle to prove the national selectors wrong.

This tour is in contrast to the equivalent European venture in 2006, when the selectors hammered the pseudo-World Cup theme. There was more certainty back then, however, about the final 30-man squad.

While there were seven players who toured Europe in 2006 who didn't make the World Cup squad, two of those places were a result of a squad of 32 being taken away in November and two - James Ryan and Jason Eaton - were the result of serious injury being sustained during Super 14.

Ma'a Nonu, Piri Weepu and Rico Gear were the only three form changes.

Those on this trip who can be sure they are in the 'guaranteed' category are: Owen Franks, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Tom Donnelly, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Jimmy Cowan, Dan Carter, Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Conrad Smith, Cory Jane and Mils Muliaina.

Elliot is edging closer to securing the third hooking spot and it would be a surprise if either John Afoa or Ben Franks (who has gone home injured) is not able to make the cut.

But the remaining players on this tour have to look at the men back home and realise they face a royal battle to make the World Cup squad.

Anthony Boric will know he could be edged out if Ali Williams makes a successful playing return. Messam played superbly against Scotland but will he stay in the squad if one or both of Thomson and Vito play strongly in Super 15?

Braid is the back-up openside for now, but are the selectors convinced they need a second specialist No 7 and even if they are, has he done enough to clinch the place?

What if Tanerau Latimer storms back in Super 15 or Matt Todd stars for the Crusaders at blindside - could his ability to cover both six and seven see him leapfrog Braid?

Weepu was always coming on this tour until injury struck so either Mathewson or Ellis is going to be disappointed.

Donald did much damage to his chances in Hong Kong and, with Slade and Cruden expected to be the respective first choice No 10s at the Highlanders and Hurricanes, that pecking order is fluid.

Gear has come of age on tour but his hopes could be dashed by the need to accommodate others who are more versatile.

If Jane and Sivivatu are deemed the first-choice wings, then Gear goes into a melting pot alongside Toeava, Kahui, Dagg, Ranger, Rokocoko and maybe even Robbie Fruean.

The pressure is mounting but the players on tour are trying to block out any thoughts of the World Cup.

"I have tried not to concentrate on it," says Ellis of the World Cup. "I can only control what happens on this tour and if I put in some good performances, I can look back and be happy with that and then concentrate on the World Cup."